Cocoa: Rapid price turnaround
April 26, 2018 at 10:06 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Growth potential
With 358,432 mt, Europe has posted a record number of cocoa beans ground in the first three months of the year since 1999. With 99,642 mt of ground cocoa beans, Germany not only follows this trend, it also outperforms it. Grinding figures were almost 9% higher than last year.
In 2017/18, global grinding is expected to amount to 4.49 million mt – a 2% increase over last year. The Ivory Coast, the world's largest producing country, is certainly doing its share. In the first quarter of the year, grinding increased by 2% to 130,000 mt. African and Asian countries are growing more important in processing. In the current season, it is estimated that 48% of cocoa beans will be processed in the producing countries. In the first quarter of the year, Asia recorded a growth of 7.21% to 190,244 mt.
Supplies are melting away
Cocoa prices are soaring, not only because of the global increase in demand, but also because of the production declines in Western Africa. The situation is quite different from 2016/17, which closed with a surplus of 300,000 mt. As a result, prices tumbled to the lowest levels in nine years, which boosted demand. Now, however, large processor Cargill is expecting of a well-balanced supply–demand situation for the current season. Cocoa is currently trading at 2,836 USD/mt in Chicago.
Bucking the trend
The only exception to the trend of increased grindings is North America. In the first quarter of the year, grinding figures were 1.14% lower than last year at 118,778 mt. An even weaker start of the season was seen in 2011. This means that the grinding figures are in the lower range of expectations. Previously, experts reckoned with a decrease by up to 1.5%, while others even banked on a 2% increase.
Q1 cocoa bean grindings in mt |
|||
Region/Country |
2018 |
2017 |
Diff. |
North America |
118,778 |
120,152 |
-1.14% |
Asia |
190,244 |
177,450 |
+7.21% |
Europe |
358,432 |
339,741 |
+5.5% |
Ivory Coast |
130,000 |
127,451 |
+2% |
Germany |
99,642 |
91,423 |
+8.99% |
Sources: NCA, CAA, CAA, GEPEX, BDSI |
View more information:
- price chart, cocoa beans, CBOT
- more price charts
- more price information