Pecans: not enough around
February 19, 2025 at 9:31 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Sharp downfalls in production
According to the January report issued by Pecaninis production has fallen short in Mexico and in the USA. Harvesting was more than 95% complete in Mexico in January. Lower yields have been confirmed with estimates predicting a 15% reduction on last year’s volume. According to INC statistics Mexico produced 71,625 mt of pecan kernels in 2023/2024 with initial estimates for 2024/2025 ranging 3.7% lower at 69,000 mt.
In the USA most growers have completed harvesting as current USDA reports indicate. In Arizona and New Mexico harvesting is 90% complete. Trouble, however, is that Hurricane Helene has caused considerable damage in Georgia, the main producing state. In addition, unusually hot weather conditions in spring and summer have adversely impacted the crop in New Mexico. Supplies are, consequently, much lower than expected with only around 80 million lbs (36,287 mt) of inshell pecans left to sell out of a predicted 580 million pound (263,084 mt) harvest. Buyers have already purchased or contracted the remainder.
Not enough pecans around
Inshell prices have stabilised at a much higher level than anticipated at this time of the year. Quotations for shelled pecans also exceed expectations and are on the rise. Pecaninis reckons that pecan halves will approach or even range higher than USD 6.00/lb in Q3. With an estimated 30% of demand still uncontracted it is very well possible that there will not be enough supplies for all leading buyers in 2025. The future is also bleak as the current droughts, hot weather and cold spells will negatively impact future crops and reduce supplies in the coming season. Consumers will certainly need to pay more for pecans.
US tariffs loom over industry
Another issue of concern for the US industry are the import tariffs for Mexico. Initially intended to come into effect in February, the Trump administration has postponed a 25% import tariff on nearly all Mexican products to the start of March. Problem is not only that both countries have presently been left in a state of uncertainty with negotiations continuing but also that if the tariffs do come into effect, they will be a disaster for US suppliers, who very much rely on Mexican imports to meet domestic and international demand. While pecans will become unaffordable for the US industry and consumers, Mexico will be able to increase exports to China, Europe, the Middle East and Canada along with Asia. At present, the USA still dominate the EU market as recent import statistics show.
EU imports up
At 16,035 mt worth EUR 149 million (USD 156 million) EU imports rose by 14% in terms of volume and by 9% in terms of value on the 14,054 mt worth EUR 137 million (USD 143 million) imported in 2023. The shipments from the USA as top supplier rose by 13% and from Mexico by 24%. Contrary to this, imports from South Africa dipped by 40%. South Africa is, in fact, the only country showing a downward trend. Within the EU the Netherlands accounted for 42% of total imports in 2024, followed by Germany with 28% and Spain with 10%.
|
EU pecan imports (kg) |
|||
|
Country |
2023 |
2024 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
9,432,430 |
10,607,772 |
12.5% |
|
Mexico |
3,782,092 |
4,688,794 |
24.0% |
|
South Africa |
729,404 |
440,237 |
-39.6% |
|
Argentina |
14,407 |
121,382 |
742.5% |
|
Panama |
- |
57,153 |
- |
|
Peru |
34,004 |
45,290 |
33.2% |
|
UK |
860 |
44,926 |
5,124.0% |
|
Vietnam |
16,129 |
16,429 |
1.9% |
|
EU |
1,118 |
5,663 |
406.5% |
|
UAE |
693 |
3,210 |
363.2% |
|
Others |
43,815 |
4,276 |
-90.2% |
|
Total |
14,054,952 |
16,035,132 |
14.1% |
|
DG Taxud’s Customs Surveillance system, provisional data, 01/01-31/12 |
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