Macadamias: upbeat estimates do not reflect market sentiments
March 20, 2025 at 9:10 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Export ban to encourage smuggling in Kenya
With harvesting underway and in-shell nut buying having started on 1 March, the government is, contrary to last year, still holding on to the export ban for in-shell nuts. Companies have already bought 2,000-3,000 mt of inshells with the intention of shipping these volumes to China. While a part may be resold in Kenya’s domestic market, traders are convinced that a share will be smuggled via Tanzania to China thereby circumnavigating the export ban. As flowering and fruit set were good in Kenya, production should rise by 5-8% according to the INC's recent Statistical Review for macadamias.
Buyers demand lower prices in China
Higher prices are weighing on demand in China at the start of the season with buyers mainly interest in style 1s kernels. Negotiations are underway with in-shell suppliers in South Africa. Yet, price expectations are still too far apart meaning that more kernels will be available in South Africa and in Kenya. Increased acreage has driven up last year’s production in China and if the weather is favourable during bloom and harvest a further increase of 5,000-10,000 mt is expected this year as the INC reports.
Worries over impact of Cyclone Alfred in Australia
Cyclone Alfred, which hit Australia on 8-9 March, including the macadamia trees in New South Wales, has left a high degree of uncertainty as the full impact on the crop is unclear. Apart from this, demand for Australian macadamias is strong in Europe and Asia. As the Australian Macadamia Society reports the 2024 crop surpassed expectations despite difficult conditions. The current estimate over 56,890 mt for inshells with a 3.5% moisture will most certainly be revised at the end of March as soon as the impact of the cyclone has been assessed.
Preliminary estimates for South Africa
Preliminary crop estimates for 2025 predict a 7% rise in production in South Africa as young trees are looking great and the crop should be average in older trees. As hot weather condition may affect nut size and weight, revisions may be issued.
Upbeat global production estimate
According to the INC global in-shell production should rise by 6% to 344,240 mt. Kernel production should even rise by 9% from 88,220 mt in 2024 to 96,180 mt in 2025. Except for Vietnam, where production is expected to remain flat, all producing countries are anticipating a rise in production, most notably in Guatemala where the crop size will rise by a stunning 20% this year. In how far the global production estimate will remain upbeat mainly depends on the revisions in Australia.
|
Global macadamia production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024 |
2025 |
Diff. |
|
South Africa |
89,200 |
95,500 |
7.1% |
|
China |
69,500 |
74,500 |
7.2% |
|
Australia |
53,950 |
56,890 |
5.4% |
|
Kenya |
44,000 |
47,500 |
7.6% |
|
USA |
15,000 |
15,500 |
3.3% |
|
Malawi |
10,200 |
11,000 |
7.8% |
|
Guatemala |
10,000 |
12,000 |
20.0% |
|
Vietnam |
8,000 |
8,000 |
0.0% |
|
Brazil |
6,500 |
5,000 |
23.1% |
|
Others |
17,100 |
17,200 |
0.6% |
|
Total |
324,550 |
344,240 |
6.1% |
|
Macadamias South Africa, China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Australian Macadamia Society, Brazilian Macadamia Association and other INC sources |
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Caution over economic downturn
In contrast to China, demand has slowed in North America as traders report. Trouble is that a possible downturn of the US economy has prompted end-users to put off buying at the current prices. Some shipments from contracts made in 2024 still, in addition, need to be delivered. This may add some pressure, if these contracts are shipped at last year’s lower prices. Quotations have been relatively firm in the last two months. Yet, the next two to three weeks will be decisive for any further price developments.
|
Macadamias, 2025 crop, raw kernels (conventional) |
||
|
South Africa |
||
|
Style |
Shipment |
USD/kg |
|
1 (+17mm) pasteurised |
May-Jun |
16.15 |
|
4L (+15mm) pasteurised |
May-Jun |
12.25 |
|
4 (10-15mm) pasteurised |
Jun-Jul |
12.00 |
|
Kenya |
||
|
Style |
Shipment |
USD/kg |
|
1L (16-20 mm) |
May |
15.25 |
|
4L (>13 mm) |
May |
10.90 |
|
4R/S (9-13 mm) |
May |
10.70 |
|
Guatemala |
||
|
Style |
Shipment |
USD/kg |
|
1s |
- |
15.25 |
|
2 |
- |
15.00 |
|
4L |
- |
14.00 |
|
CFR |
||
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