Cumin Seeds: Future Market will cross highest Price level

Global output of Jeera/Cumin is around 2.2 lakh MT per year, of which India produces about 1.5 lakh MT per year. Gujarat and Rajasthan are the major producers of cumin seed in India. Global export demand is about 30,000 MT per year. India exports Jeera mainly to the US, UK, UAE, Japan, Brazil, Bangladesh, Singapore and many other countries. Other Major exporters are Syria and Turkey.

Unjha: In the last two months, the price of cumin has increased by about one thousand rupees per quintal. The reason for this increase is that the supply of cumin is tight and there is good demand due to Festival Season. However, traders say that, the fluctuations in a day in Cumin Seeds will be seen due to its shortage in the market, the prices may increase further till the new crop and its estimate and sowing report arrives.

However, in commodity exchange NCDEX, cumin on September futures fell by US$25per mt. i.e. US$3025 per mt. on Wednesday, closing at up by US$50 per mt. In a day total increase by US$75 per mt. Analyst and Chartists says that if there is a strong trend in Cumin, then it can touch the level of US$3150 to US$3200 per mt. in the near future.

According to the one trader at Unjha says that availability of cumin is very low. The total stock of Cumin in the Unjha is 0.9 to 1 million sacks, while the stock is around 1.3-1.4 million in the whole country. They say that domestic demand in cumin is good with the commencement of festival season, whereas the demand for Indian cumin is better on the export front. There is six months left for the new crop of Cumin Seed and on the basis of this stock it will not be surprising if it becomes further tightening.

However, this year, many agricultural commodities have not brought the good returns to the traders and stockiest due to which they do not want to make any new purchases at the existing prices of cumin. Only big traders are trading in it or those who have cumin seeds will hold them. However, a large number of businessmen have gone out of the market and now they cannot think of re-entering at existing high prices.

All, who are dealing in Cumin Seeds, believes and says that cumin crosses the level of US$3125 per mt., in a short time by speculators and bookies on NCDEX future market. At every drop in cumin, this class has made good purchases. The festival demand will remain strong till September-October, whereas cumin supply in the international market is also very low since last one month.

According to one Trader, says that the inefficient stock and failure of the Syrian and Turkey has affected the international market. In the last decade in the country, carryover stocks remained almost negligible due to which the overall available quantity of crop was low. Some supply of cumin seeds from Syria-Turkey was in June-July but now only the Indian Cumin is available in the global market. The exports of cumin in the first five months of the current financial year is 5039 tonnes, which is 9.7% more than the same period last year.

The second round of cumin seed is yet to come, in November and December at the time of sowing report. This upward was to come in July but could not come for some reason. They say that in the spot, the business of cumin is going to be 15-16 thousand sacks daily, whereas in these days this business usually has 7-8 thousand sacks. This shows that the demand for cumin is better. If the cumin seed does not fall during August-October, then there will be a storm surge in it. They say that in the previous year even cumin has increased in December. It is expected a sharp increase in cumin seed in late November and if this growth does not increase then this hope will be rejected.