Almonds: early bloom and ridiculous US tariff proposal
March 4, 2025 at 10:15 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Germany tops the chart
Exports are up and running in Spain this season. Not only did monthly exports surge by 30% to 13,722 mt in December as compared with the 10,568 mt shipped in December 2023 but total exports are also 23% up at 77,171 mt for August to December 2024. Germany tops the chart with a 27% upsurge in shipments, followed by France with a much more nominal rise of 9% and Italy an impressive increase of 39%. Shipments to Turkey, the only destination in Spain’s top ten not in Europe, has more than doubled shipments. The UK and Greece are the only two top ten destination displaying declines.
|
Almond exports, Spain (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff |
|
Germany |
12,863 |
16,305 |
26.8% |
|
France |
14,580 |
15,821 |
8.5% |
|
Italy |
10,905 |
15,155 |
39.0% |
|
Netherlands |
2,119 |
3,641 |
71.8% |
|
Turkey |
914 |
2,408 |
163.5% |
|
Portugal |
2,162 |
2,218 |
2.6% |
|
Poland |
1,885 |
2,167 |
15.0% |
|
UK |
2,128 |
1,793 |
-15.7% |
|
Greece |
542 |
1,589 |
193.2% |
|
Belgium |
1,579 |
1,570 |
-0.6% |
|
Others |
12,867 |
14,504 |
12.7% |
|
Total |
62,544 |
77,171 |
23.4% |
|
Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, Spain, 01/08-31/12 |
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Direct impact of agricultural tariffs negligible for Spain
Spain’s Union of small farmers Unión de Pequeños Agricultores y Ganaderos (UPA) was quick to dismiss US president’s Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on agricultural floated on social media on Monday. Issue is that Trump did not outline which products would be affected and as UPA national secretary Cristóbal Cano, pointed out, Trump tends to quickly change his mind. According to Radobank US importers would have to bear the cost of such tariffs as EU companies would be quick to adapt their supply chains. the EU mainly exports beverages, fruit and vegetables, dairy and seafood to the US worth EUR 38 billion (USD 40 billion) per year. EU agrifood imports from the US, by contrast, only amount to EUR 14 billion (USD 15 billion). Yet, a global trade war could affect trade flows quite severely. As Spain imports more almonds from California than it exports to the US, possible retaliatory tariffs may pose quite a substantial challenge to common trade flow. The country has only exported 583 mt of almonds to the US the season so far.
Early bloom in Spain and mixed conditions in California
Reports have emerged of almonds trees blooming around 18 days too early in mid-January triggered by warm weather in Northeastern Spain. While blooming almonds trees normally indicate the arrival of spring, the climate crisis is rather to blame for the early flowers, which are out of sync with the season. Trouble is that frost now poses an enormous risk for the crop and that not enough bees are around to pollinate the trees, which will also reduce output. Trouble for the bees is also that they may be too late to be able to obtain enough food to survive.
Weather conditions are mixed in California. While the blooming season is now in full swing storms blow many petals of early in some areas. Conditions have, by contrast, turned warm dry which is good new as such, and bee activity is reportedly good. Yet, some growers are considering starting to irrigate their orchards.
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