Almonds: drought and inflation
June 13, 2022 at 11:15 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
May record
At 257.546 million lbs US almond shipments hit a record in May as the position report issued by the Almond Board of California shows. Since domestic shipments have climbed to 643.545 million lbs between August and May and exports to 1.542 billion lbs net shipments amount to 2,186 billion lbs, which however falls 11% short on the 2.448 billion lbs shipped in the same period last year.
Year-to-date exports also amounted to 1.542 billion lbs, which is 13% down on last year. The uncommitted inventory ranged at 660 million lbs, which is 52% up on last year. Handlers had sold 129 million lbs of the 2022/2023 production in May. US export have declined in nearly all leading destinations, with the noted exception of the Netherlands, where shipments range 20% higher than last year. Demand slowed in India in the second half of May as RPAC reports. This should, however, change in the next few months since India will require supplies form the current crop for Diwali, the festival of lights, which is celebrated in October. Low prices should also help to revive demand in other countries.
|
US almond YTD exports in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Top 10 destination |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
Diff. |
|
India |
322,268 |
300,195 |
-7.9% |
|
Spain |
191,046 |
184,591 |
-3.4% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
152,183 |
111,125 |
-27.0% |
|
Germany |
123,846 |
92,859 |
-25.0% |
|
United Arab Emirates |
104,226 |
98,222 |
-5.8% |
|
Netherlands |
79,695 |
85,150 |
20.4% |
|
Italy |
81,836 |
71,628 |
-12.5% |
|
South Korea |
67,552 |
57,307 |
-15.2% |
|
Turkey |
58,015 |
55,918 |
-3.7% |
|
Canada |
50,530 |
53,564 |
6.0% |
|
Others |
545,105 |
431,826 |
-9.2% |
|
Total |
1,776,302 |
1,542,385 |
-13.2% |
|
California Almonds, 01/08-31/05 |
|||
Prices up in Europe
Inflation certainly is a concern in the US and in Europe as this will impact demand. Suppliers, however, hope that the relative attractiveness of the almond prices will help to sustain demand. Although prices in Europe are indeed still relatively low in levels roughly witnessed in 2020, they have picked up in recent weeks. Production prospects are also far from encouraging in Spain as the National Nut Board reckons that the sudden frosts in spring coupled with drought will reduce this year’s crop by 30% to 61,684 mt (136 million lbs).
|
Almonds |
||
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
USD/kg |
|
Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
4.80 |
5.05 |
|
Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain |
5.00 |
5.26 |
|
Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural, Spain |
6.50 |
6.83 |
|
California, SSR, 23/25, blanched, USA |
5.65 |
5.94 |
|
FCA Spain |
||
California braces for water stress
The prospects for the new crop are, by contrast, still highly encouraging in California and most analysts are confident that production will reach the anticipated 2.8 billion lbs. California is, however, bracing for the driest months in the year and water stress will become an issue. Farmers are already removing many almond trees in Federal water districts and as it is becoming less attractive to grow almonds this trend is expected to gain momentum after the harvest.
View more
- price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
- price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
- price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
- more price charts
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