Almonds: countdown is on
June 13, 2023 at 10:56 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
24% slump in shipments
May shipments range 24% lower than last year. They have, in fact, declined from 257 million lbs in 2021/2022 to 196 million lbs in 2022/2023 as California Almonds illustrate in the most recent position report. Domestic shipments thereby declined by 15% to 55 million lbs and exports by 27% to 193 million lbs. Total shipments for the season have flatlined at 2.19 billion lbs. While domestic shipments range 7% lower at 599 million lbs, exports have risen by 3% to 1.59 million lbs. Shipments to most leading export destinations have either declined or are relatively flat, whereas China/Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are the noted exceptions as shipments to these destinations have risen sharply.
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
Destination |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
USA |
643,545 |
598,985 |
-7.0% |
India |
300,195 |
291,361 |
-3.0% |
Spain |
184,591 |
165,635 |
-10.3% |
China/Hong Kong |
111,125 |
132,020 |
18.8% |
UAE |
98,222 |
112,022 |
14.0% |
Germany |
92,859 |
93,752 |
0.9% |
Netherlands |
85,150 |
73,787 |
-13.4% |
Italy |
71,628 |
73,180 |
2.1% |
Japan |
82,059 |
71,924 |
-12.4% |
Turkey |
55,918 |
67,675 |
21.0% |
Others |
460,638 |
511,001 |
10.9% |
Total |
2,185,930 |
2,191,342 |
0.2% |
California almonds, 01/08-31/05 |
Next season to be much easier
Expectation is that total shipments will reach a similar level of around 2.634 billion lbs as last year at the end of the season. Crop receipts, however, range 12% lower than last year so far at 2.5 billion lbs, which comes very close to the forecast 2.6 billion lbs. Carryout supplies should therefore range lower than last year at 750 million lbs, which is welcome news for the industry as last year’s record supplies presented challenges for shipping. Total supplies should reach 3.2 billion lbs in 2023/2024 if the Subjective Estimate for the new crop turns out to be correct.
With California still experiencing spring-like weather conditions in June, the harvest may very well be delayed. Fortunately, the current conditions are good for the crop and the trees appear to be in good shape. Attention has now turned on the Objective Estimate, which will be issued on 7 July. After sales recently slowed, trading picked up again last week and the market gained some support. At 677 million lbs uncommitted inventories, however, still range unusually high and suppliers will need to offer more attractive prices if they wish to sell their supplies before the arrival of the new crop in August.
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