Wheat: Right now, the weather is a double-edge sword
May 17, 2018 at 11:11 AM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
Wheat: A successful season begs a repeat. Yet, will it?
BULGARIA. According to local authorities, by the 10th of May 2018, estimated sowed land with wheat for the upcoming harvesting season stood at 1,141,340 ha. The number is by 4.1% higher than planted wheat land during the previous season. A larger area is just the start for unrealized hopes while the rest depends on the weather, quality and yield of crops, as well as, on foreign demand.
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 - 11.05.2018) units in MT |
|
Beginning availability |
179,000 |
Aggregate output |
6,134,496 |
Imports |
60,145 |
Domestic consumption |
1,569,800 |
food |
861,000 |
feed |
438,000 |
Seeds |
240,000 |
industrial usage |
30,800 |
Exports to the world |
4,279,120 |
to EU markets |
3,587,014 |
to rest of the world |
692,106 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
The weather as a double-edge sword
The moisture reserves in the soil during the month of May are crucial for the development of the grains; even more so since the weather during the month of April, generally speaking on a nationwide level, did not favor local farmers. Although showers have fallen throughout the majority of regions in the country, in many parts of regions, farmers still complain of lack of rains. In places, the moisture reserves are sufficient while in others, they are minimal – covering the bare minimum for that time of season, which is not assuring at all. That is why some farmers worry their yields could be drastically affected if the current state of meteorological conditions within their regions continue till the end of the month, since the grains will not be able to fully mature.
Starting in May, farmers have entered the season of hailstorms. In parts of the Southwest region and that of the Northwest, hailstorms, with frozen balls as big as walnuts, have already fallen. Reports say fields have not been affected, yet. Anyhow, market players know quite well that more hits are expected. Farmers worry that a sustained attack of a heavy hailstorm for even a few minutes over a field could lead to a complete loss of harvest.