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Wheat: Ample supplies within the Black sea region influence local market sentiments

February 8, 2018 at 3:52 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Market developments within the Black sea basin exert pressure on regional prices and influence local export rates to non-EU markets. Exports to EU markets keep the momentum strong, though.

BULGARIA. The Black sea region has already become a focal point in the global trade of wheat. According to the most recent USDA report on World Agricultural Production, during harvest 2017-18, Russia realized 85 mmt of wheat, which is by 12.47 mmt higher on an annual basis while Ukraine collected 26.50 mmt of the crop or slightly less, by 0.30 mmt, than combined quantities from the previous harvesting season. The ample supply of wheat, together with the great export potential of the big regional market players, has already influenced prices within the region and local export rates to non-EU markets. 

Wheat: buoyant exports to EU markets

The high quality of the local grains, competitive prices and the persistently strong foreign demand infused quite a momentum in the shipment rates of local exports since the very beginning of the marketing season. According to local authorities, by the end of last week, shipped volumes to countries within the Union reached 2,811,614 mt, which on a year-to-year basis stood by 30.11%. Big local exporters see the trend continue its steep climb at least till the end of the month.

       Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 02.02.2018)

            units in MT

Beginning availability

179,000

Aggregate output

5,900,000

Imports

50,193

Domestic consumption

1,086,400

   food

588,000

   feed

298,000

   seeds

180,000

   industrial usage

20,400

Exports to the world

3,256,210

   to EU markets

2,811,614

   to rest of the world

444,596

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

In the realm of prices

The plentiful supply of wheat within the region will continue to influence local prices, and if not push them down substantially – since the quality characteristics of this year’s local grains is quite high while the great majority of it is shipped to EU markets, it seems, at least, it could well set a ceiling, which might prevail throughout the end of the marketing season. Local exports to EU markets will serve as a rescue from such a plausible scenario, but will they continue to be as strong beyond February? According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the average weekly purchasing price for milling wheat is 0.143 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria while at that time last year, prices reached as high as 0.150 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria.

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