Wheat: Could aggressive export activities support prices down the road?

November 2, 2017 at 10:22 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Exports started strong early in the marketing season - harvest 2017-18, and big local exporters predict the trend will keep its momentum to at least the end of February 2018.

Wheat: three months of strong export activities

BULGARIA. Since the beginning of the marketing season (1st of July 2017), the export trend has been kept upbeat. A case in point: according to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 27th of October 2017, the country exported 2,329,338 mt while by the 28th of October 2016, the country shipped abroad 1,968,711 mt; the difference is 18.32% in favor of the current marketing year. The change in total availability (aggregate output, imports and carry-over) for both years is not huge: this year’s figure stands at 6,115,640 mt while that of the previous season reached 6,067,390 mt or just 0.80% in favor of the current one.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 27.10.2017)

Beg. availability, incl. carry over & imports

6,115,640 mt

Domestic consumption

649,000 mt

Exports to the world

2,329,338 mt

   to EU markets

2,066,212 mt

   to rest of the world

263,226 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Could the active trade push-up prices?

At the end of last month, local authorities’ estimates for current availabilities reached 3,137,302 mt. The high quality characteristics of wheat this year – one of the highest within the Black sea region, according to local exporters – keep the export impetus strong. Although estimates of world output and regional exports stand high, the strong foreign demand will most probably keep the local price level on the upper side while drastic price nosedives seem out of question.

There are rumors among local market players that prices could increase in the Black sea region, starting the beginning of 2018. Yet, such assumptions are based on recent analyses of realized shipments abroad and medium-term forecasts. Anyhow, even if international buyers are doubtful about such speculations, the record export rate, which is projected to stay strong throughout the season, should not be taken lightly, but instead should serve as a light: whether it will be taken as a red or a green light depends on the side on which the market player stands.

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