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Weather conditions before harvest matter

June 9, 2017 at 8:47 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Farmers from different regions have different stories to tell. Projected aggregate output this year will be smaller. Prices on the receding side.

 The regions of the Southeast and the North are usually characterized with the highest output of rapeseed while much smaller quantities are harvested throughout the Southwest and the central South regions.

Rapeseed: harvest starting within a few weeks

SOFIA. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 1st of June 2017, available acreages for harvest stood at 165,353 ha, which is about 2.4% less than available plots during harvest 2016-17. So far, fallen through plots were recorded to amount to 20,814 ha, as the highest aggregate loss took place in the overall South regions. Favorable weather conditions are a key factor before, as well as, during harvest.

Rapeseed during harvest 2016-17

In recent years, rapeseed has turned into an exclusively exported oriented crop. The substantial part of exports is quickly shipped out to foreign countries sometime after the marketing season starts. For instance, during marketing season 2016-17, 98.92% of domestic output were exported, with the majority (91.36%) going to countries of the European Union.

To further provide a perspective on the strength of foreign demand for the crop, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 4th of June 2017, exported rapeseed via Varna sea port stood at 216,457 mt; a year earlier, via the same trade route, exports accounted for 73,551 mt – the yearly difference is 194.3% in favor of harvest 2016-17. Average yield for the current season was estimated at close to 2.97 mt/ha.

Harvest 2016-17

(01.07.2016 - 02.06.2017)

Carry over

70,000 mt

Domestic output

509,251 mt

Imports

33,743 mt

Domestic consumption

74,600 mt

Exports to the world

503,771 mt

   to EU countries

465,266 mt

   to the rest of the world

38,505 mt

 Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Will foreign demand arrest the persistent fall of prices and lift them up in favor of local farmers as harvest begins?

Since the beginning of January 2017, average monthly EXW purchasing prices have been following a downward trajectory. Regional competition matters, projected outputs in foreign countries and analysis of short-term and long-term prospects do influence local prices. However, provided the new crop were exported quickly after the marketing season starts, as was the case during season 2016-17, local farmers could breathe a sigh of relief. Soon, the market will show its pulse beats!

 Rapeseed, Bulgaria

Crop

EUR/kg

rapeseed

0.340

EXW Bulgaria

 

 

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