Walnuts: upbeat US exports with challenges ahead
August 29, 2024 at 8:45 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Germany prime export destination for shelled walnuts
July was a strong month for shelled walnuts in the US. At 37.043 million pounds monthly shipments stood 7% higher than the 34.423 million pounds recorded in July 2023. Domestic shipments, however, declined sharply by 21% to 17.925 million pounds, whereas 22.653 million pounds were shipped in the same month last year. Contrary to this, exports took a sharp upturn of 62% to 19.109 million pounds as opposed to the 11.770 million pounds shipped in July 2023.
Total shipments for the season stand 14% higher than last year at 561.303 million pounds. Domestic shipments thereby saw a comparatively moderate uprise of 5% to 240.128 million pounds, but exports gained by 22% from 262.352 million pounds in 2022/2023 to 321.085 million pounds in 2023/2024. Germany has not only retained its position as leading export destination for shelled US walnuts this season so far but has also upped shipments by 27%. Exports to Japan are flat and have surged by a stunning 51% to Spain. While exports to most top ten destinations have risen by double digits, Canada is the only country sporting a 4% decline.
|
US walnut shipments, shelled (1,000 pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
228,011 |
240,218 |
5.3% |
|
Germany |
52,441 |
66,888 |
27.5% |
|
Japan |
36,892 |
37,075 |
0.5% |
|
Spain |
22,549 |
34,158 |
51.5% |
|
Korea |
28,383 |
34,027 |
19.9% |
|
Netherlands |
17,434 |
23,158 |
35.4% |
|
UK |
13,294 |
20,873 |
57.0% |
|
Canada |
15,154 |
14,575 |
-3.8% |
|
Israel |
8,944 |
11,418 |
27.7% |
|
Australia |
7,012 |
10,617 |
51.4% |
|
Italy |
5,438 |
9,699 |
78.4% |
|
Others |
54,812 |
58,597 |
6.9% |
|
Total |
490,364 |
561,303 |
14.5% |
|
California Walnut Board, 01/09-31/07 |
|||
Inshell shipments surge to Turkey
At 7.844 million pounds monthly US inshell walnut shipments may have ranged 5% higher than the 7.467 million pounds recorded in July 2023, yet domestic shipments surged more than tenfold to 6.042 million pounds as opposed to the mere 551,000 pounds in July 2023. Exports, by contrast, slumped by 34% to 6.916 million pounds as compared with the 1.802 million pounds shipped last year.
Exports are, however, the driving force this season. They stand 33% higher than last year’s 231.362 million pounds at 308.439 million pounds for September 2023 through to July 2024. Domestic shipments also witnessed an upsurge of 43% to 16.574 million pounds, yet this volume pales in comparison with other destinations. Funnily enough shipments to the leading export destination Turkey have also surged by 43%, yet Turkey accounts for nearly a third of total shipments. Italy is next in line with a remarkable uprise of 74%, followed by the United Arab Emirates, which show the most noted decline of 40%.
|
US walnut shipments, inshell (1,000 pounds) |
|||
|
Destination |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
Turkey |
87,904 |
126,078 |
43.4% |
|
Italy |
23,897 |
41,655 |
74.3% |
|
UAE |
47,133 |
28,155 |
-40.3% |
|
India |
9,876 |
24,679 |
149.9% |
|
Algeria |
17,412 |
17,209 |
-1.2% |
|
USA |
11,558 |
16,574 |
43.4% |
|
Spain |
8,229 |
12,044 |
46.4% |
|
Lebanon |
6,036 |
11,121 |
84.2% |
|
Iraq |
1,142 |
9,265 |
710.9% |
|
Germany |
8,099 |
9,109 |
12.5% |
|
Morocco |
3,704 |
7,402 |
99.9% |
|
Others |
17,930 |
21,722 |
21.1% |
|
Total |
242,920 |
325,013 |
33.8% |
|
California Walnut Board, 01/09-31/07 |
|||
Challenging season ahead
Encouraging as the recent export figures are for US walnuts, challenges will prevail in the international market in 2024/2025. At the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress in May US production was expected to decline by around 10% to 671,000 mt as compared with last year. In July, the USDA’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook anticipated a 6% decline in production to 770,000 mt. Issue is that the 2023/2024 winter was rather warm and wet. In addition, it should be noted that 2023/2024 witnessed a record crop of 824,000 mt. The Objective Measurement Report, which will be issued on 4 September, will provide a clearer assessment.
Contrary to this, news is highly encouraging in China. According to INC estimates production will rise by 11% to 1.5 million mt. While China was struggling with quality issues last year, weather conditions have been much more favourable this year as local media highlight. Expectation is that he quality of the crop will be much better, meaning that competition from China will become fiercer in 2024/2025. Yet, confidence prevails that the US will be able to hold its market shares in the international market. Much will depend on quality.
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