Sugar: Contradicting estimates for 2017/18

June 8, 2017 at 12:29 PM , Der AUDITOR
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LONDON. The estimates for the 2017/18 global sugar production are generally good. There is, however, one noted exception as the estimates of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) are quite out of line.

Contrasting views

The downward trend continues for raw sugar listings on the New York Stock Exchange, and the price for July deliveries is currently at 13.98 US cents/lb. Except for the ISO, global production estimates from various analysts and market players range between 180-190 million mt.

 

Platts Kingsman sees the consumption growth at a 7-year low; estimates vary between 170-185 million mt and are therefore – once more with the exception of the ISO – below the estimated production volume. In contrast, the ISO estimates that consumption will reach 172.4 million mt, an expects a global production of 165.9 million mt. This large discrepancy between consumption and production is due to the fact that the production increase in the EU is not able to compensate for the production decline in Brazil, China, Thailand and the USA.

The US Department of Agriculture is, however, much more optimistic in stating that Chinese sugar production in 2017/18 should even rise by 13.2% to 10.5 million mt. India will probably also be able to reduce its sugar imports this year.

 

Sugar estimates in comparison

Organisation

Million mt

ISO

165.90

USDA

180.00

TRS

186.35

Green Pool

188.10

F.O. Licht

190.30

Source: KSC

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raw sugar price chart

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