Sesame Seeds: New offers from Nigeria pushes market down & stable.

Sesame Seeds Market Report:

Nigeria

Exchange rate is stable. Market is also stable. Not much movement in the market. Market is stable and little down side. Forward offer is at US$1080 to 1120 per mt. for October November Shipment. No demand from China market. There is good crop expecting. Since last Saturday, demand has stopped. Higher Prices demand has stopped. New crop prices will be lower than current market prices. Prices are going to be down as forward offer has started from Nigeria. No demand from other countries likes Turkey and also Gulf Countries, etc.

TOGO/MALI/Burkina:

Prices are stable and down side in the local market. Today, prices in dollar are stable. There is no demand at higher prices from china. There is no demand since Saturday. Exchange rate is stable. Buyers are looking lower prices in the market but not able to get as it is end of season. New prices offer will start soon at lower prices. Market will go further down if forward offer starts for new crop.

Ethiopia: 

ECX Prices are stable. Since last couple of days there is no buying interest coming from China. Due to this market start going down in Ethiopia. Market is down in Ethiopia today Ethiopia cargo offered at 1190 per mt. fob but chines buyer not accepting the prices.  People are reluctant to buy at higher prices. In this week it is expecting that prices will go down further by US$30 per mt. Prices are stable today and not much movements in the market.

Sudan:

Exchange is stable. Sudan offered prices are stable. Market is stable as there is no demand. There is stock but not huge stock. It is estimated about 30000 to 40000mt. total for all qualities of Sesame in Sudan.

Somalia:

Local market is stable due to no demand from India and other countries. At very higher prices demand stops.

Bangladesh:

Local market is stable. China has stopped buying at higher prices. Not much demand at higher prices due to that market get stabilize and little down.

Tanzania/Mozambique:

Market is stable in the local market. There is no demand at higher prices. At lower prices there is demand.  Not much arrivals of the cargo from bush. China buyers are seeing offers at lower prices; they are not inclined to make order at higher prices.  Demand stable and slow down since last two days. Market will go little down soon.

Indian:

Exchange rate is stable vs. Dollar.  Local market is up today. Due to bad weather last week and demand for hulled sesame, market get little higher today. Local demand has increased due to festival consumption of oil as well as seeds. Overall market is not strong. Market can do down when new crop arrival time coming closer.

Report on China:

Local market prices are stable and little down on Saturday and today. China market has falle down by US$30 per mt. today. China annual consumption is about 1.3 million tons this data is as per previous year imports as well as local crop estimates as per the available data by china government.

Supply

100,000 Mt.   Stock at Port                          

100,000 Mt.    Arrival up to December         

200,000 Mt.    New crop 2017 of China

===========

400,000 Mt.    Total

Demand

As per data of total imports of China, consumption is about 1.3 million tons per year.

  30,000 Mt.    August

100,000 Mt.    September

100,000 Mt.    October

100,000 Mt.    November

100,000 Mt.    December

100,000 Mt.    Port Stock will remain

============

 530,000 Mt.   Total

Note: There will be gap of about Stock will be there at port 130,000 Mt.  Local market should be strong during November 2017 before new crop import arrival starts from Nigeria to China.  

Current market down is due to new arrival and lower demand in the local market and new arrival of chines crop.  As there is festival coming for New Year celebration in china, the demand will goes up during that time and prices will rise in the local market.

The reasons for sesame market to go up and down:

1. Local crop prices stop increasing faster and market get stable.
2. International Prices are coming down due to no demand at higher prices from china
3. Less arrival, stock also getting reduce at port but there is local crop arrival has started which makes prices stable.
4. There are some businesses reported from Nigeria new crop @1070 to 1110 per mt. which will push the prices down and not allow going up in coming future. New offers have started floating in the market from Nigeria at lower than current market prices by speculators.
5. Local prices has to go up during October – November as per demand and supply gap shown above.

Personal Views:

According to personal views Indian Prices should be stable. International prices will also move down and stable. If Nigerian shippers speculate the market and starts offering lower prices lower side than market will stop going up.