Rapeseed: Slow on the domestic market; nothing left for the foreign ones
February 16, 2018 at 4:25 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. During the first half of the month, the weather has been fickle, with temperatures fluctuating between - 5 and 14 Celsius degrees throughout regions. Although sporadic showers provided the necessary rainfall in some regions to replenish soil layers and low temperatures alternate with high ones, preventing substantial winterkills, farmers hope for heavy snow cover. Thick snow is highly needed, but since December 2017, January and during the first half of February of the new year, snow fell only on a few occasions; and where it did, it lacked in the necessary thickness. The higher than usual for the month temperatures quickly melt snow cover in the majority of the fields throughout the country. The weather forecasts snowfalls by the end of the month, but such a thick-snow lacking Winter will surely cut into the yields of next harvest. If weather conditions during March turned out to exhibit more of early Spring-like features, yield losses in regions would be inevitable.
Rapeseed: exports have died while local demand preserves its snail-like pace
The brisk export rate, which is usually predominant for a few months after harvest ends each year, is long gone. Rapeseed, among all other locally grown grains, enjoys the highest relative export rate, which as a consequence becomes the main factor that significantly depletes remaining stocks. Annually, local consumption of the crop within the processing sector is small, as during the whole marketing season of 2016-17, domestic demand reached a share of 16.22% of aggregate output - 509,251 mt, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. For the current marketing season, domestic share is not projected to differ much from that of last year.
|
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 – 09.02.2018) units in MT |
|
|
Beginning availability |
25,000 |
|
Aggregate output |
458,110 |
|
Imports |
27,655 |
|
Domestic consumption |
47,200 |
|
oil & biodiesel production |
47,200 |
|
Exports to the world |
421,861 |
|
to EU markets |
388,365 |
|
to rest of the world |
33,496 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
Since the great majority of the crop is shipped abroad while the country remains a relatively small regional producer – a dwarf indeed of the oilseed crop, prospects for the product should seem rosy. However, according to local authorities, current planted acreages are smaller than those of the previous year. Yet, it is not only the scale of planting that affects output; there is the weather factor that could substantially cut or raise yields. Although the general crops’ conditions within the country look good, it is too early to definitely place a safe bet on the upcoming harvest. One thing is certain, provided the availability of thick snow, maintained by low temperatures, became real, not only would the confidence of local farmers be boosted, but their harvests’ prospects, as well.
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