Rapeseed: Quietude has grabbed the market
March 16, 2018 at 12:38 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. The Winter has been quite mild, more like having the traits of an early Spring, with a few snow falls, the heaviest of which fell a few weeks ago. Yet, according to farmers in different regions throughout the country, the general conditions of the crop look good. Till the end of the month, the weather forecast predicts temperatures to fluctuate between as high as 25 Celsius degrees and as low as - 3 Celsius degrees. During the period, agrometeorological conditions will alternate from intermittent showers, to snowfalls accompanied by lower temperatures in regions, to sunny days underlined by higher temperatures.
Rapeseed: the expected quietude has settled on the market
The active period for trade of rapeseed has long passed. Yearly, brisk exports quickly deplete stocks early in the season and what is left for later in the marketing year is an optimistic outlook for the upcoming harvest. The processing of rapeseed locally is limited and imports usually represent a small share annually – by the end of last marketing season, imports reached 33,743 mt while the aggregate output of the country accounted to 509,251 mt.
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 – 09.03.2018) units in MT |
|
Beginning availability |
25,000 |
Aggregate output |
458,110 |
Imports |
32,655 |
Domestic consumption |
50,400 |
oil & biodiesel production |
50,400 |
Exports to the world |
423,461 |
to EU markets |
389,965 |
to rest of the world |
33,496 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
Yet, since foreign demand -- indeed that by EU markets, which so far represents a share of 85.12% of this year’s aggregate output -- has been so strong, local supply should have long adjusted itself. However, there seems to be no concrete indicators for such an adjustment, just the opposite since farmers planted lesser area of the crop for the upcoming harvesting season. The most certain means through which a country could increase or decrease its production is via husbandry decision during sowing time, putting aside the unintended consequences of agrometeorological conditions. Will the optimistic outlook turn into a pessimistic one remains to be seen!