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Rapeseed: the market is seemingly slowing down

August 3, 2017 at 8:52 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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The weather belated and interrupted harvest this year, but this should not have intervened with market participants’ trade activity so much.

Rapeseed: lower output, lower yield, lower than expected trade activity

SOFIA. Rapeseed has become the export-oriented crop since the great majority of it is exported to foreign countries; domestic consumption on a yearly basis is small. However, it seems that after farmers executed their contractual obligations early in the marketing season, trade activity is slowing down.

Market players hold the crop, expecting a higher price in the short-term. Farmers from the Northeast forecast rapeseed, having high oil content, to reach as much as 0.383 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria by the middle of August 2017. However, developments in the Black sea region could cool off their short-term strategies. Soon, the most recent export figures will stand as a proof.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 28.07.2017)

Carry over

25,000 mt

Domestic output

432,847 mt

Domestic consumption

6,400 mt

Exports to the world

73,000 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Anyhow, this year’s output is expected to be lower, by as much as 10-12% from the previous one, which should additionally support the price. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 27th of July 2017, farmers combined 94% of total available acreages for harvest, reaching an estimated output at 432,847 mt. The estimated yield so far is calculated to be 2.85 mt/ha while that of last year stood at 2.97 mt/ha. Last year’s aggregate output was 509,251 mt.

 Rapeseed, Bulgaria

Crop

EUR/kg

rapeseed

0.358

EXW Bulgaria

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