Pecans: China stocks up
September 11, 2024 at 12:56 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
China as the main buyer
As the experts at Chelmer Foods report with reference to Pecaninis, the pecan harvest in the southern hemisphere is now as good as complete. More than 90% of the total volume is said to have already been harvested, with South Africa accounting for a large proportion of the crop, namely around 70% or 30,000 mt. China is the main buyer here, securing up to 90% of the crop at an average price of USD 5.00 kg. The last shipments are expected to reach the Asian country at the beginning of October, in line with the rising demand for pecans during the Chinese New Year, which will be celebrated on 29 January 2025. According to Pecaninis, this emphasises South Africa's important role in the global pecan market and the importance of timing exports to coincide with seasonal demand in China, one of the largest pecan consumers in the world.
Drought leads to smaller crop
In the south of the USA and the north of Mexico, the harvest is expected to start at the end of September or beginning of October. Many growing regions here are reporting a lower nut yield on the trees, which is why the crop volume is expected to be down by an estimated 5 to 10% compared to the 2023/24 season. The main reasons for this are the high temperatures and drought in the months of March to May. However, if the forecast rainfall arrives soon, the quality of the nuts should improve once again.
Prices are likely to remain stable for the time being, as market players are currently awaiting the crop results and are holding back on purchases. In the long term, however, prices are expected to rise as soon as the USDA confirms the prospects of a smaller crop and lower carry-over stocks. As processors and exporters will endeavour to secure the limited stocks, buying activity should then increase. If demand continues to outstrip supply, the pecan market could see sustained higher prices well into the 2025 harvest season, Pecaninis said.
Germany increases imports from Mexico
However, demand from Europe remains strong. In the USA and Canada, purchasing activity has remained constant, while demand in Mexico has increased over the past year due to the strength of the peso against the US dollar. However, this advantage has diminished with the recent depreciation of the peso against the dollar, as Chelmer Foods reports.
German pecan imports increased by more than a fifth year-on-year in the period from September 2023 to June 2024. The most important supplier is Mexico, which increased its shipments by almost 188%, pushing the USA into second place. US shipments fell by 18.7%, while South Africa and the Netherlands also saw their exports to Germany decline by 50.7% and 35.5% respectively. Germany imported a total of 4,642 mt of pecans during the mentioned period.
|
Pecan imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
Mexico |
778 |
2,240 |
187.9% |
|
USA |
2,423 |
1,971 |
-18.7% |
|
South Africa |
282 |
139 |
-50.7% |
|
Netherlands |
197 |
127 |
-35.5% |
|
Spain |
15 |
45 |
200.0% |
|
Others |
134 |
120 |
-10.4% |
|
Total |
3,829 |
4,642 |
21.2% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jun 08029910 Fresh or dried pecans |
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