Peanuts: limited downturn despite Holi
March 25, 2024 at 11:03 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Downturn in India
In fact, the market for peanuts has turned largely unpredictable due to several unexpected events. Although prices have slipped, China has prevented a sharp downturn by booking nearly 350-400 containers in the last four weeks at prices ranging between USD 1,740-1,760/mt for peanuts with a 2% free fatty acid content. The demand from China and Vietnam for TJ and Bold varieties has, moreover, driven up local prices.
India, however, also faces fierce competition. After the local elections were held in Indonesia on 14 February, it was expected that the country would start buying in India. Yet, demand was diverted to Tanzania, where rates turned out to be more competitive. Tanzania’s new crop has been harvested and the market is waiting for moisture levels, which are currently too high for export, to come down. Yet, the colour appears promising, and expectation is that the crop will be ready to ship next week.
Farmers have started sowing the Rabi crop in Gujarat, but the Kharif crop stocks are not really selling as market activities are reduced and suppliers are reluctant to offer lower prices. Stagnant stock levels and poor quality have forced 80% of the factories to shut down in Rajasthan. Summer sowing is also presenting challenges and uncertainty will persist until the general elections will be held in the state on 19 April and 26 April. The season has peaked in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana as domestic demand is slowing. Karnataka reports good arrivals meeting domestic demand. Tamil Nadu’s slow start to the summer crop has given rise to local use since moisture levels are still high.
The market will remain sluggish this week due to the Holi festival and the closing of the financial year. Traders will, therefore, only buy essentials. Domestic demand will also decrease as less oil is required in summer. Analysts state that the market has turned capricious with fluctuations persisting every week. Arrivals have, in addition, not gained the anticipated momentum and may well see a sharp rise in April and May.
|
Peanuts, with skin |
|
|
Type |
USD/mt |
|
Bold, 40-50 |
1,320 |
|
Bold, 50-60 |
1,280 |
|
Bold, 60-70 |
1,265 |
|
Java, 50-60 |
1,355 |
|
Java, 60-70 |
1,270 |
|
Java, 70-80 |
1,275 |
|
FOB India, non-EU quality |
|
Tight supplies in the US and Brazil
Tight supplies and high prices ranging at around USD 2,150-2,200/t for blanched 38/42 peanuts are being reported in the US, where demand will remain strong until May. Prospects are looking bright for the 2024 crop despite recent hot spells and yields should be good if the weather remains favourable until the harvest. CFR Rotterdam prices range at USD 1,900/t for 38/42 blanched peanuts and at USD 1,750/t for raw 38/42 peanuts, but buyers are advised to watch out for weather-driven shifts. New crop deals for May/June can be had but are difficult to obtain. Some plants are already fully booked for May to July.
Limited supplies have driven up quotations to USD 2,150-2,200/t for the 2023 crop in Brazil. Expectation is that production will be good in 2024 despite recent weather challenges. Quotations for the 2024 crop stand at USD 1,900/t for blanched and at USD 1,750/t for raw peanuts. Early transactions for the new crop are underway with some plants already sold out for May to July.
View more
- price chart, peanuts, with skin, 40/50, Bold, India
- price chart peanuts, with skin, 50/60, Java, India
- price charts for nuts, dried fruit, oilseeds and many more products
Attached Files
View related articles
