Peanuts: everything hinges on the USA and China
June 12, 2023 at 11:10 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Shift in supplies
Although the production of the Java variety has been completed in India, prices still range lower in Mozambique and Tanzania. While importers in Indonesia are mainly buying in Mozambique at present, the situation is about to change. Issue is that export supplies will be exhausted in Mozambique by the end of July as only around 10-20% remain. Attention will then turn to Tanzania.
Demand in India is, by contrast, more subdued. Traders are mainly selling to Vietnam and Japan. While output rose sharply by an estimated 50% in Uttar Pradesh and by 25% in West Bengal, production is estimated 35% lower in Gujarat. As Chinese importers finalised shipments in the past two weeks prices initially rose. Now, however, cheaper offers for Java peanuts have emerged with prices ranging at USD 1,330-1340/mt FOB India. Prices will certainly lose ground. China has already ordered nearly one hundred containers of peanut oil with rates ranging at USD 1,825-1,840/mt and sales are expected to continue on a similarly high level but at lower rates of USD 1,790-1,800/mt. Arrivals will cause price declines to around USD 1,750/mt after 15 June.
|
Peanuts, with skin |
|
|
Type |
USD/mt |
|
Bold, 40-50 |
1,500 |
|
Bold, 50-60 |
1,460 |
|
Bold, 60-70 |
1,445 |
|
Java, 50-60 |
1,570 |
|
Java, 60-70 |
1,485 |
|
Java, 70-80 |
1,490 |
|
FOB India, non-EU quality |
|
Gearing up for October
Harvesting has been completed in Argentina, but prospects are far from good for exports. As yields have declined sharply exports will only reach an estimated 500,000 mt this year, which is nearly 30% down on the 700,000 mt shipped overseas last year. Prices range USD 400-500/mt higher than last year. Buyers in the EU are far from happy with these rates and some downward pressure is expected in the next few months. Production has also been completed in Brazil, where disease problems are being reported. Brazil mainly ships peanuts and peanut oil to Russia and China along with Ukraine, Macedonia and Moldova. Demand from China, however, ranges lower.
In what way the market will turn in the next few months largely depends on the USA and China. Sowing is presently underway in the US and it is too early for crop estimates. If production is good, large volumes will be available for exports, especially to India and Brazil. Importers in the EU will also seize on this opportunity. Sowing also started in China in June and harvesting will take place in October. If production is good, China will require less supplies from Brazil and India. Sowing for the Bold variety is also underway in India and harvesting will commence in October.
View more
- price chart, peanuts, with skin, 40/50, Bold, India
- price chart peanuts, with skin, 50/60, Java, India
- price charts for nuts, dried fruit, oilseeds and many more products
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