Olive oil: crop forecasts at the end of September

July 24, 2024 at 4:18 PM , Der AUDITOR
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IZMIR. In Turkey, the 2024/2025 season is expected to bring a record olive oil crop. Olive oil exports could also reach a new high – if the restrictions are lifted.

Great potential

Olive growers in Turkey are preparing for a record crop. In the 2024/2025 season, the 200 million olive trees in 41 Turkish provinces are expected to yield 400,000 mt of olives. As in the 2022/2023 season, this crop would make Turkey the second-largest olive producer in the world.

Due to the restrictions on olive oil exports in barrels and other large units that have been in place for around a year, exports fell significantly in the 2023/2024 season. However, lower yields in other important producing countries such as Spain and Italy had ensured that Turkish olive oil exports increased by 240% year-on-year to 136,500 mt in the 2022/2023 season. Experts believe that Turkey could export USD 1 billion worth of olive oil once the restrictions are lifted, which would be a new record. In a concession, the Turkish Ministry of Trade had initially agreed to an additional export quota of 50,000 mt, which reduced the pressure from carry-over stocks and profit losses in the market somewhat. Nevertheless, market players are hoping that the 2024/2025 season will not be characterised by restrictions or quotas and that exports can flow freely.

Acreages have to be relocated

Turkish olive growers are currently busy maintaining the plantations, and there are isolated reports of pests that have had to be dealt with. As usual, the responsible experts will carry out inspections in the growing regions at the end of September in order to be able to make a better crop forecast. 

Experts warn that olives – like many other agricultural products – are suffering from climate change. Without appropriate precautions, declining crops and production results are inevitable. This year, the trees have already suffered from the high temperatures in April. One possible measure to reduce the stress on the is to plant new plantations primarily at higher altitudes. The climate there is much more favourable than in the coastal regions. 

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