Mustard seeds: significant production increase in sight
April 27, 2022 at 12:33 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Hardly any carry-over stocks for the new season
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada announced in its latest report that Canadian exports for the 2021/22 season are expected to be lower than last year and should reach 80,000 mt. Due to the low production, stocks are shrinking rapidly and experts expect that there will be hardly any carry-over stocks at the start of the new season, which will also probably drive the average price to a record level. The most important export destinations for Canadian mustard seeds continue to be the USA and the EU.
Average price remains high
For the 2022/23 season, the market experts are reckoning a significantly larger acreage and production should also increase noticeably to up to 115,000 mt under normal circumstances. Exports here are estimated at 80,000 mt, the same quantity as last year. Due to the higher supply, the average price is likely to decline slightly again, although it will still be above the five-year average.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
Diff. |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
104,000 |
125,000 |
20.2% |
125,000 |
150,000 |
20.0% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
101,000 |
113,000 |
11.9% |
113,000 |
145,000 |
28.3% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.98 |
0.44 |
-55.1% |
0.44 |
0.79 |
79.5% |
|
Production (mt) |
99,000 |
50,000 |
-49.5% |
50,000 |
115,000 |
130.0% |
|
Imports (mt) |
6,000 |
8,000 |
33.3% |
8,000 |
7,000 |
-12.5% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
165,000 |
98,000 |
-40.6% |
98,000 |
127,000 |
29.6% |
|
Exports (mt) |
111,000 |
80,000 |
-27.9% |
80,000 |
80,000 |
0.0% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
15,000 |
13,000 |
-13.3% |
13,000 |
32,000 |
146.2% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
40,000 |
5,000 |
-87.5% |
5,000 |
15,000 |
200.0% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
885 |
2,900 |
227.7% |
2,900 |
1,800 |
-37.9% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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Ukraine conflict influences the market
Price trends are generally difficult at the moment. As Rayglen Commodities reports, it still looked as if a downward trend was emerging at the beginning of March, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the war that has continued since then ensure that Russian shipments are made impossible. This has given prices a new boost. On the European spot market, mustard seeds of the Sinapis Alba variety, 99.9% purity for deliveries in big bags currently cost EUR 2.30/kg FCA Poland.
Massive increase in German imports
German mustard seed imports increased significantly by more than 44% year-on-year in the period September 2021 to February 2022. The most important supplier was Russia, which increased its exports to Germany by almost 55% to 13,602 mt, followed by Ukraine (+9.7% to 4,283 mt) and Canada (+74.5% to 2,613 mt). The most significant increases in their shipments to Germany were achieved by the Czech Republic (+208.8%) and Kazakhstan (+860.6%).
|
Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
8,789 |
13,602 |
54.8% |
|
Ukraine |
3,906 |
4,283 |
9.7% |
|
Canada |
1,497 |
2,613 |
74.5% |
|
Czech Republic |
226 |
698 |
208.8% |
|
Kazakhstan |
66 |
634 |
860.6% |
|
Estonia |
611 |
11 |
-98.2% |
|
Others |
562 |
746 |
32.7% |
|
Total |
15,657 |
22,587 |
44.3% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Feb *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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