Mustard seeds: lower cultivation forecast for 2025/26
January 23, 2025 at 4:24 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
2024 crop lower than expected
According to the experts at Rayglen Commodities, there is currently enough product available to meet demand, which ensures stable prices. However, the uncertainties surrounding the expected US tariffs and the ongoing war in Ukraine are making forecasts extremely difficult at the moment. It can currently be assumed that acreage in Canada, the USA and Russia will be lower this year, which could result in a price increase for the coming 2025/2026 season.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada made further revisions to its estimates for the 2024/2025 Canadian mustard seed season in its December report. Both acreage and yields are said to have been significantly lower than initially expected. However, due to the disappointing result in the previous year, there was still a year-on-year increase in production. The acreage shrank by 43% to 143,000 hectares, while the yield increased by 16.2% to 0.79 mt/ha, but the crop result still increased by 12.3% to 192,000 mt. A total of 290,000 mt of Canadian mustard seeds would be available on the market this season.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
225,000 |
258,000 |
14.7% |
258,000 |
245,000 |
-5.0% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
219,000 |
251,000 |
14.6% |
251,000 |
143,000 |
-43.0% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.74 |
0.68 |
-8.1% |
0.68 |
0.79 |
16.2% |
|
Production (mt) |
162,000 |
171,000 |
5.6% |
171,000 |
192,000 |
12.3% |
|
Imports (mt) |
11,000 |
16,000 |
45.5% |
16,000 |
9,000 |
-43.8% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
189,000 |
226,000 |
19.6% |
226,000 |
290,000 |
28.3% |
|
Exports (mt) |
110,000 |
96,000 |
-12.7% |
96,000 |
100,000 |
4.2% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
40,000 |
42,000 |
5.0% |
42,000 |
45,000 |
7.1% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
40,000 |
88,000 |
120.0% |
88,000 |
145,000 |
64.8% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
2,140 |
1,280 |
-40.2% |
1,280 |
830 |
-35.2% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
||||||
Shipments from Ukraine have doubled
In the first six and a half months of the 2024/2025 season (1 July 2024-19 January 2025), a total of 41,271 mt of mustard seeds worth EUR 32.223 million were imported into the EU from third countries, meaning that imports fell by 18.1% year-on-year and the import value even fell by 32.8%. This is partly due to the fact that imports from Russia (-81.8% to 5,114 mt) have declined significantly, as higher import duties have applied to imports from Russia into the EU since 1 July 2024. In contrast, however, imports from countries such as Ukraine (+106% to 16,282 mt), Canada (+3.4% to 13,189 mt), Kazakhstan (+621.7% to 5,492 mt) and Moldova (+489.5% to 843 mt) have increased significantly. The most important buyer countries within the EU, such as Germany (-21.9% to 13,650 mt), Poland (-40.4% to 9,920 mt) and Belgium (-34.4% to 6,020 mt), all significantly reduced their imports.
In the period from September to November 2024, Germany imported 9,912 mt of mustard seeds, a year-on-year decline of 14.4%. Shipments from Russia fell by 93.8% to 411 mt due to the introduction of higher import duties, whereas Germany increased its imports from Ukraine (+103.1% to 6,401 mt), Canada (+37.5% to 1,657 mt), Poland (+158.6% to 600 mt) and the Czech Republic (+58.6% to 360 mt).
Prices for mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 99.95% purity, of Eastern European origin have fallen slightly in recent weeks and are currently averaging around EUR 740/mt.
|
EU mustard seed imports, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Ukraine |
7,904 |
16,282 |
106.0% |
|
Canada |
12,754 |
13,189 |
3.4% |
|
Kazakhstan |
761 |
5,492 |
621.7% |
|
Russia |
28,109 |
5,114 |
-81.8% |
|
Moldova |
143 |
843 |
489.5% |
|
Others |
719 |
351 |
-51.2% |
|
Total |
50,390 |
41,271 |
-18.1% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01.07.-19.01. 12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
|||
View more
- price charts on oilseeds, grains, nuts, dried fruit, spices and more
View related articles
