Mustard seeds: Canada's cultivation forecast for 2025/26
January 30, 2025 at 9:18 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Declining production expected
In the first report of the new year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has already published a forecast for expectations for the 2025/2026 Canadian mustard seed season. Meanwhile, no further adjustments have been made to the estimates for the current season for the time being.
Based on current calculations, the prospects for the coming season are quite sobering. According to these, not only is the acreage expected to shrink by 26.5% to 180,000 ha, but the average yield is also expected to be around 6.3% lower at 0.74 mt/ha, which would reduce the production result for the 2025 crop by a third year-on-year to 130,000 mt. Thanks to carry-over stocks from the current season, which are currently estimated at 150,000 mt, 289,000 mt of Canadian mustard seeds would still be available, almost as much as in the 2024/2025 season. Meanwhile, the average price is expected to fall by 1.8% to CAD 815/mt.
However, lower mustard seed shipments from Russia to the EU could be an incentive for the Canadian trade to grow more mustard seeds. In January 2024, experts originally assumed an acreage of 225,000 hectares, but this changed by the actual sowing date.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
258,000 |
245,000 |
-5.0% |
245,000 |
180,000 |
-26.5% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
251,000 |
243,000 |
-3.2% |
243,000 |
175,000 |
-28.0% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.68 |
0.79 |
16.2% |
0.79 |
0.74 |
-6.3% |
|
Production (mt) |
171,000 |
192,000 |
12.3% |
192,000 |
130,000 |
-32.3% |
|
Imports (mt) |
16,000 |
9,000 |
-43.8% |
9,000 |
9,000 |
0.0% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
226,000 |
290,000 |
28.3% |
290,000 |
289,000 |
-0.3% |
|
Exports (mt) |
96,000 |
95,000 |
-1.0% |
95,000 |
100,000 |
5.3% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
42,000 |
45,000 |
7.1% |
45,000 |
44,000 |
-2.2% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
88,000 |
150,000 |
70.5% |
150,000 |
145,000 |
-3.3% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
1,280 |
830 |
-35.2% |
830 |
815 |
-1.8% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
||||||
Missing quantities from Russia only partially compensated for
In the first seven months of the 2024/2025 season (1 July 2024 - 26 January 2025), a total of 42,826 mt of mustard seeds was imported into the EU from third countries, a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%. This is partly due to the fact that imports from Russia (-80.0% to 5,796 mt) have fallen significantly, as higher import duties have applied to shipments from Russia to the EU since 1 July 2024. In contrast, imports from countries such as Ukraine (+95.1% to 16,436 mt), Canada (+5.3% to 13,433 mt), Kazakhstan (+568.7% to 5,931 mt) and Moldova (+358.2% to 843 mt) have risen massively.
The most important buyer countries within the EU, such as Germany (-24.2% to 13,980 mt), Poland (-38.9% to 10,400 mt) and Belgium (-34.4% to 6,020 mt), have all significantly reduced their imports.
Prices for mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 99.95% purity of Eastern European origin recently averaged EUR 740/mt and prices of EUR 1,050/mt DDP Germany were called for Brassica Nigra, 99.5% purity.
|
EU mustard seed imports, in mt |
|||
|
Ursprung |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Ukraine |
8,426 |
16,436 |
95.1% |
|
Canada |
12,759 |
13,433 |
5.3% |
|
Kazakhstan |
887 |
5,931 |
568.7% |
|
Russia |
28,987 |
5,796 |
-80.0% |
|
Moldova |
184 |
843 |
358.2% |
|
Others |
735 |
387 |
-47.3% |
|
Total |
51,978 |
42,826 |
-17.6% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/07-26/01 12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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