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Macadamias: possible shortage at the turn of the year

November 11, 2024 at 4:35 PM , Der AUDITOR
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CAPE TOWN/NAIROBI. The fact that the macadamia crop is lower than expected in some important growing countries could lead to a certain shortage on the market in the coming months. Prices have stabilised temporarily.

Good demand meets scarce supplies

The macadamia market remains very quiet, as the experts at Ofi report. The main reason for this is that buyers in Europe and the USA still have sufficient stocks. However, as there is good overall demand for shelled macadamias and smaller crops are expected in some important growing countries, including South Africa and Australia, there could be a certain shortage between December and February. It will be several months before the next crop will be available and the carry-over stocks for the coming season are likely to be extremely small. Macadamia prices had been rising steadily for a long period but have stabilised in recent weeks, according to Ofi.

Crops are below expectations

In South Africa, market players are expecting a slight decline in production. Current estimates are 76,753 mt, which would be 3.7% less than last year and 12% less than the forecasts at the start of the season. This is mainly due to the heavy rainfall at the beginning of the season and the relatively cool summer, both of which had a negative impact on yields as well as the size and quality of the nuts.

The crop in Kenya will probably not be as large as initially forecast, but at 44,000 mt it is still likely to be 3.5% higher than last year's volume. Since the temporary lifting of the export ban on unshelled macadamias at the end of last year, China in particular has been buying more from Kenyan exporters, causing commodity prices to skyrocket. In contrast, exports of macadamia kernels have fallen this year. Ofi states that it is very likely that the lifting of the export ban will be extended for a further six months, which will also have a significant impact on exports next season.

In Australia, too, this year's production is 5% up on last year and therefore below the original forecasts for the new season. A total of 50,830 mt is said to have been harvested. At the beginning of the season, growers were faced with numerous challenges such as intense heat and wet weather, but conditions improved towards the end of the season.

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