Flaxseed: Prices will drop
July 27, 2017 at 12:33 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Brown flaxseed is now trading for 490-500 EUR/kg DDP Germany and yellow flaxseed is trading for 705-715 EUR/mt DDP Germany. It is still very difficult to estimate production in Russia. Market players report that a lack of rain is also causing difficulties in smaller countries such as Moldova and the Ukraine. It is therefore highly unlikely that this year’s production will reach similar levels as last year’s record production of far more than 1 M mt in Eastern Europe.
Flaxseed, 99.9% purity |
|
Quality |
EUR/mt |
brown, 2016 crop |
490-500 |
brown, 2017 crop |
490-500 |
yellow, 2017 crop |
705-715 |
DDP Germany |
New estimates in Canada
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has corrected the estimates for the 2017/18 flaxseed production in the recently published July report. Although an acreage of 421,000 ha is expected, which is still significantly bigger than 2016, this is considerably less than the 451,000 ha expected in June. With yields remaining stable this means that a 6.6% drop in production to 635,000 mt is to be expected.
Due to the large carry-over stocks and imports, however, supplies for 2017/18 amount to as much as 765,000 mt in Canada. Average prices should therefore drop by 6.5% to 430 CAD/mt.
Flaxseed, Canada |
2015/16 vs. 2016/17 |
2016/17 vs. 2017/18 |
||||
acreage |
664,000 |
378,000 |
-43.07% |
378,000 |
421,000 |
11.38% |
harvested |
646,000 |
338,000 |
-47.68% |
338,000 |
414,000 |
22.49% |
yield (mt/ha) |
1.46 |
1.71 |
17.12% |
1.71 |
1.53 |
-10.53% |
production |
942,000 |
579,000 |
-38.54% |
579,000 |
635,000 |
9.67% |
imports |
13,000 |
10,000 |
-23.08% |
10,000 |
10,000 |
0.00% |
total supplies |
1,053,000 |
863,000 |
-18.04% |
863,000 |
765,000 |
-11.36% |
exports |
631,000 |
600,000 |
-4.91% |
600,000 |
625,000 |
4.17% |
consumption |
149,000 |
143,000 |
-4.03% |
143,000 |
40,000 |
-72.03% |
carry over stocks |
274,000 |
120,000 |
-56.20% |
120,000 |
100,000 |
-16.67% |
avg price in CAD/mt |
449 |
460 |
2.45% |
460 |
430 |
-6.52% |