Expected rain could interrupt the upcoming harvest

June 16, 2017 at 7:02 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Weather is a knife with two blades. An agricultural business is an open factory in the middle of a field, where all could go wrong in the spark of a moment. The upcoming days will show whether the weather will (dis)favor farmers.

In almost all regions of the country, barley is closing through its final stage of maturity. Usually, in about a week time, farmers should start harvesting the crop, but the recent weather forecast of continuous rains could actually lengthen the time and bring some surprises.

Factors influencing planting strategies

SOFIA. Exports have been weak so far in the season. According to the Agricultural Ministry, by the 9th of June 2017, exports stood at 373,796 mt. Most probably, exports for the season will not break the 400,000 mt barrier before the start of the new harvest. Last year’s exports were close to 550,000 mt.

The average monthly purchasing price in July 2016 was estimated at 0.124 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria. A year earlier, it stood at 0.139 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria. Since the beginning of harvest 2016-17 till the end of 2016, average monthly purchasing prices moved within the range of 0.124 EUR/kg to 0.129 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria. Farmers chose to change their cultivation strategies to investing in crops that are more profitable, such as rapeseed.

Barley, as it currently stands

Harvest 2016-17

(01.07.2016 - 09.06.2017)

Carry over

4,900  mt

Domestic output

697,787 mt

Domestic consumption

305,400 mt

Exports to the world

373,796 mt

Average yield

3.9 mt/ha

 Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Since the beginning of 2017, the market experienced a change in price direction. Prices have been following an upward trajectory, with average purchasing prices of this week reaching 0.141 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria.

Local demand is too weak to deplete remaining stock (39,000 mt) before the end of harvest 2016-17.

Barley, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

feed barley

0.141

EXW Bulgaria

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