Dried fruit and blue poppy seeds: “Turkey’s economical situation is very sensitive”

Which were the main difficulties faced by the dried fruits market in 2024? What has changed compared to the last two years?

Due to changing climate conditions in the whole world, also sultana raisins grown mainly in the province Manisa were deeply affected by heavy rainfalls in June 2023 which lead to huge quality and yield losses, so the average yield of 300.000-330.000 mt dried sultana raisins dropped to 250.000 mt for the 2024 crop, which were not all suitable for exports either. Turkey ended up with an export figure of 207.000 mt at the end of the season after approximately 260.000-270.000 mt per average during previous seasons. Also due to high inflation rates in Turkey of around 70%, the growing costs of the farmers as well as the processing costs of the exporters increased, which lead into the result that FOB prices of USD 1750/mt at the beginning of the season ended up in USD 4300/mt FOB price levels for standard type no 9.  The effects of the diseases in the vineyards from summer 2023 also continued this year and with a very hot summer the yield of the 2025 crop was estimated at around 230.000 mt. Since TRY 100/kg per average for standard type no 9 for the new crop was announced already at the beginning of August when the harvest had not even started yet, the prices settled at these levels which made it difficult for the Turkish exporters to compete with USD 3500/mt FOB prices compared with other origin producing countries whose levels were at USD 2500/mt levels.  Since the Turkish Lira also remained strong towards the exchanges, it made it more difficult for the exporters to calculate competitive prices as their costs increased massively on TRY basis.

With several global political tensions, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the import tariffs on Russian agricultural commodities for shipments to Europe significantly increasing, will this also have an impact on the blue poppy seed market?

The outlook for the Turkish blue poppy seed market remains uncertain. Due to adverse climate conditions, which have affected crop yields, there was less product. This has led to higher prices, resulting in reducing the competetiveness on the global market. Demand has decreased. As with other products, markets remain under pressure due to the overall economic situation in Turkey.

In 2024, climate change and its impact on global commodity production was once again a major issue. How should growers and market players act to be prepared for the coming years?

Since climate change will remain the major issue for the coming years, farmers in particular must enhance water management, make more use of technology and data which is mainly to be managed by local State Agricultural Chambers and the state must perform changes in Agricultural Policies to support local farmers and to promote sustainable agricultural practices and climate adaptations. Meanwhile, market players are working to create opportunities for improvement of the sales to all countries all over the world, but also the state has to implement policies to enable the exporters to hold and gain a foothold in the world markets and remain competitive.  And by implementing these strategies, growers and market players can better manage the uncertainties of climate change and contribute to a more sustainable future for global commodity production.

Once again commodity prices have risen significantly in many markets, some being at all-time highs or close to. Inflation and higher production costs are leaving their mark; the Turkish dried fruit market is no exception here. Do you think consumers will look for cheaper alternatives in the long run?

It has been observed that the commodity prices do not rise only in Turkey but all over the world for the last years; maybe not as much as in Turkey, but there are still some serious increases. Turkey is currently maybe one of the most expensive supplying countries but this will be definitely adjusted on the long run to continue to compete with other countries, or Turkey must look for and add new alternative products to be grown which are also in high demand all over the world; but this is of course not realisable in the near future.

Looking at the current market situation, what challenges might the blue poppy seed and the dried fruit markets face in the 2025/2026 season?

Both the Turkish dried fruit market as well as the Turkish blue poppy seed market are likely to face several challenges in the 2025/2026 season, influenced by both global and local factors. Ongoing climate change may lead to extreme weather events like drought or excessive rainfalls which can affect the qualities severely. Turkey’s economical situation is very sensitive on changes worldwide and due to the continuing wars, this could result in higher inflation rates and rising production costs overall in Turkey.