Dried apricots: market governed by uncertainty
June 9, 2020 at 10:23 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Disagreement over production
Dried apricot production is to start in seven to ten days in Malatya. Production normally lasts until the end of August. Official production estimates have still not been issued and estimates currently range in a wide gap of 80,000-120,000 metric tonnes. A difference of 40,000 metric tonnes, however, has a large impact on prices. Estimates rangeing as low as 70,000-80,000 metric tonnes have recently also given rise to discussion. The picture is far from clear as to what to expect in the new season. Market players so far only agree on the good quality of the fruit. Provided that there are no excessive rains, which could prolong the drying, the quality should remain promising. A high proportion of large fruits is, in addition, to be expected due to the smaller number of fruit sets.
Exchange rate fluctuations cause problems
The volatility of the Turkish lira in recent months has prompted additional uncertainty. Problem is that prices have differed by as much as USD 400 per metric tonne within only one month, a situation that spells disaster for many market players. Nominal rises are currently to be observed in the export market.
Dried apricots, Turkey |
||
Size |
USD/mt |
EUR/mt |
No 2 |
3,250 |
2,879 |
No 4 |
2,950 |
2,613 |
No 6 |
2,800 |
2,480 |
No 8 |
2,400 |
2,126 |
FOB Mersin, 2,000 ppm |
Limited carry-over stocks expected
Turkey has shipped 88,374 metric tonnes of dried apricots and dried apricot products overseas since the beginning of the season, nearly 3,000 metric tonnes less than one year ago. Domestic consumption ranges at 10,000 metric tonnes. Exports may climb to 100,000 metric tonnes by the end of the season. Carry-over supplies are, therefore, expected to be limited. Last week, 1,028 metric tonnes were shipped overseas, more than twice as much as in the same period last year. This rise is mainly attriubuted to the celebrations marking the end of Ramadan.
Dried apricot exports in mt |
||
Type |
2019/20 |
2018/19 |
Whole |
75,449 |
75,340 |
Industrial |
6,996 |
9,639 |
Diced |
5,929 |
6,261 |
Total |
88,374 |
91,240 |
Since the start of the season |