Corn: Prices are expected to float around current levels
November 24, 2017 at 3:43 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. No doubt, prices started low in the beginning of harvest 2017-18. Fearing a bearish trend, farmers began selling while corn was still in the fields. Since the beginning of the marketing season (1st September 2017) prices have doggedly persisted against a slide on a downward trajectory.
Corn: could an expected lower availability of corn in the Black sea region support local prices?
According to the most recent USDA report on World Agricultural Production, prolonged dry weather conditions in the main corn production regions in Ukraine affected the yield, placing estimates at “5.56 metric tons per hectare … down 16 percent from last year.” Such an estimated yield decrease placed the projected output at 25 mmt, which is lower by 3 mmt on a year-to-year basis. Harvest is still underway.
In Bulgaria, hopes were for prices to find support in the projected lower availability of corn supply in the Black sea basin -- although Romania is expected to increase its corn production share this year, -- but current market sentiments prove such hopes as futile. Local market players do not expect a hike in the short-term, even though exports have been generally strong on a weekly basis, with some minor exceptions, since the start of the marketing season.
Harvest 2017-18 (01.09.2017 - 17.11.2017) units in MT |
|
Beginning availability |
580,000 |
Aggregate output |
2,298,673 |
Imports |
164 |
Domestic consumption |
280,000 |
food & industrial usage |
100,000 |
feed |
180,000 |
Exports to the world |
483,645 |
to EU markets |
431,864 |
to rest of the world |
96,681 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 16th of November 2017, estimates of harvested corn acreages came to 94.7% out of 418,136 ha while collected output reached 2,298,673 mt.
Corn, Bulgaria |
|
Crop |
EUR/kg |
Corn |
0.135 |
EXW Bulgaria |