Corn: Market dynamics turn the wind in favor of local consumption
February 8, 2018 at 4:37 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. Historically, the top importers of locally harvested corn are the countries of the EU while smaller quantities go to destinations outside the Union. Since the beginning of the marketing season, shipped volumes abroad have followed their ups’ and downs’ trajectories. Yet, it is local prices that have uncompromisingly kept the rise, although incremental, strong on a monthly basis. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, since the start of the season (1st of September 2017) till the end of last month, average monthly purchasing prices climbed from 0.132 EUR/kg EXW to 0.138 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria.
Corn: strong domestic demand has been on the rise
By the end of last week, according to local authorities, remaining quantities of harvest 2017-18, which came to a little above 2.3 mmt, stood at 1,657,353 mt. An analysis of internal market developments will show a substantial increase in the domestic consumption of the grain by the food & industrial, as well as, by the livestock sectors – the rise is 20.13% in favor of the current year. Competitive prices on the local market, as well as, the prevailing dynamics on the wheat export’s front, contribute to local buyers to turn to corn. The already established dominant trend will most probably continue till the end of the season.
Harvest 2017-18 (01.09.2017 - 02.02.2018) units in MT |
|
Beginning availability |
580,000 |
Aggregate output |
2,315,387 |
Imports |
7,621 |
Domestic consumption |
555,000 |
food & industrial usage |
210,000 |
Feed |
345,000 |
Exports to the world |
690,655 |
to EU markets |
574,857 |
to rest of the world |
115,798 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
In the realm of prices
Although most recent price levels continue to preserve what they have persistently gained since the beginning of the marketing season, in comparison with those of last year, current prices of corn have been quite depressed. According to local authorities, in the first week of the month, weekly average purchasing prices of corn were 0.140 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria. Yet, for the whole of February 2017, average monthly purchasing prices reached 0.152 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria. No one is delusional that the price levels of last year could be reached!