Corn: exports nosedive before the end of 2017
December 22, 2017 at 9:12 AM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. During last week, shipped volumes to foreign markets slowed down again. The week is one of several so far since the beginning (1st of September 2017) of the marketing season that experiences such a slum in export activities. Prices remain strong though, and while nearing the end of 2017, they have even added weekly gains, according to local authorities. However, unless large sellers withdraw the grain from the market, prices are expected to float around current levels.
Corn: unsettling waters ahead
During marketing season 2016-17, exporters faced a tough regional competition while on occasions, prices reached as high as 0.150 – 0.153 EUR/kg EXW. At times, exports kept their plummeted rates longer, and as a result, carry-over in the beginning of the current marketing season came to 580,000 mt. Such developments must have ruffled local market sentiments since at the beginning of harvest 2017-18, prices started as low as 0.123 EUR/kg EXW farmers’ storage facilities. Recent estimates, released by the Ministry of Agriculture, placed national output at 2,315,387 mt (final figures are yet to be confirmed), providing the country with close to 2.9 mmt of corn inventory for the season.
Harvest 2017-18 (01.09.2017 - 15.12.2017) units in MT |
|
Beginning availability |
580,000 |
Aggregate output |
2,315,387 |
Imports |
401 |
Domestic consumption |
380,000 |
food & industrial usage |
140,000 |
feed |
240,000 |
Exports to the world |
574,314 |
to EU markets |
464,781 |
to rest of the world |
109,533 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
By the 15th of December 2017, 954,314 mt of total availability were marketed domestically and to foreign markets, with the remaining 1,941,474 mt to be disposed of by the end of the current season. However, even though local demand is forecasted to keep its momentum high, going well into 2018, because of higher consumption of corn for feed in the animal stock industry, domestic consumption lacks the depth and breadth of foreign markets to deplete reserves alone. It is foreign markets that will decide the future of next year’s carry-over. With exports slowing down, 2018 might well ruffle some local market players’ feathers.
Corn, Bulgaria |
|
Crop |
EUR/kg |
Corn |
0.137 |
EXW Bulgaria |