Corn: EU supplies under threat

September 9, 2022 at 11:34 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

PARIS. EU corn imports have recently surged showing that the US Department of Agriculture’s forecast that the EU will step up imports to 19 million mt may very well ring true. Russia’s sharp criticism of the implementation of the grain export deal with Ukraine may, however, cut off the bloc from urgently needed supplies.

Threats impact market

Drought and excessive heat have reduced production in France, Italy and Germany and Poland. EU production estimates range at 60 million mt, which is roughly 15% down on the 71 million mt produced last year according to EU Commission data. EU imports have, therefore, risen sharply by 48% to 4.47 million mt this marketing year so far as opposed to the 3.03 million mt imported last year. While the USDA expects the EU to step up buying by 3 million mt to 19 million mt, the EU Commission reckons that 20 million mt will need to be imported.

Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has threatened to limit the deal for shipping grains and oilseed brokered with Ukraine to only a few countries, which would effectively impede the EU from obtaining Black Sea supplies as of November. Ukrainian corn exports enabled by the deal rose to 763,000 mt in August and are expected to climb further. The EU may, therefore, switch to the US or Brazil for supplies - GMO may, however, be an issue here. Brazil’s monthly exports surged by 71% to 7.55 million mt in August as opposed to the same month last year. China will also have to step up imports due to drought.

Prices up in Europe

Ethanol is trading lower and uncompetitive prices have rendered corn unattractive for the feed industry. Russia’s threat to limit the grain corridor has, however, driven up prices by EUR 2-7/mt in Europe in the last few days.

EU grain maize, yellow, 98% purity

Destination

EUR/mt

Diff. EUR/mt

Bordeaux, France, FOB

338

3

South Holland, CIF

350

7

Brake, Germany, FOT

337

2

Upper Rhine, France & Germany, FOB

325

2

Trade sources, weekly comparison


View more
price chart, corn, yellow, 99.5% purity, Matif
price chart, corn, CBOT

Attached Files

File icon
price chart corn matif

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Grains
Dec 20, 2024
BRUSSELS. Wheat production has exceeded expectations in Argentina and Australia. The US funding bill will have quite an impact on corn. Exports are running smoothly for US soybeans. Rapeseed arrivals from Australia have revived activities in France and Belgium.
Grains
Dec 18, 2024
LIMA. Favoured by the significantly better production result, quinoa exports from Peru increased significantly again this year. But it was not only Peruvian traders who were able to increase their shipments to the EU.
Grains
Dec 13, 2024
BRUSSELS. This week’s WASDE report is far from encouraging for EU wheat and has failed to consider developments in South America for corn. Prospects are still sunny for soybeans in South America. Euronext rapeseed futures have recovered from the November slump.
Grains
Dec 6, 2024
BRUSSELS. Although the prospects for Australia’s wheat crop are highly encouraging, large volumes have been downgraded as feed wheat. Trump’s proposed tariffs have stirred a high degree of irritation for corn. Prospects for Brazil’s bumper soybean crop have improved. Palm oil is a price driver for rapeseed and canola.