Corn: EU supplies under threat
September 9, 2022 at 11:34 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Threats impact market
Drought and excessive heat have reduced production in France, Italy and Germany and Poland. EU production estimates range at 60 million mt, which is roughly 15% down on the 71 million mt produced last year according to EU Commission data. EU imports have, therefore, risen sharply by 48% to 4.47 million mt this marketing year so far as opposed to the 3.03 million mt imported last year. While the USDA expects the EU to step up buying by 3 million mt to 19 million mt, the EU Commission reckons that 20 million mt will need to be imported.
Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has threatened to limit the deal for shipping grains and oilseed brokered with Ukraine to only a few countries, which would effectively impede the EU from obtaining Black Sea supplies as of November. Ukrainian corn exports enabled by the deal rose to 763,000 mt in August and are expected to climb further. The EU may, therefore, switch to the US or Brazil for supplies - GMO may, however, be an issue here. Brazil’s monthly exports surged by 71% to 7.55 million mt in August as opposed to the same month last year. China will also have to step up imports due to drought.
Prices up in Europe
Ethanol is trading lower and uncompetitive prices have rendered corn unattractive for the feed industry. Russia’s threat to limit the grain corridor has, however, driven up prices by EUR 2-7/mt in Europe in the last few days.
EU grain maize, yellow, 98% purity |
||
Destination |
EUR/mt |
Diff. EUR/mt |
Bordeaux, France, FOB |
338 |
3 |
South Holland, CIF |
350 |
7 |
Brake, Germany, FOT |
337 |
2 |
Upper Rhine, France & Germany, FOB |
325 |
2 |
Trade sources, weekly comparison |
View more
- price chart, corn, yellow, 99.5% purity, Matif
- price chart, corn, CBOT