Corn: Are bulls’ hooves heard in the distance?

January 12, 2018 at 12:39 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. The projected decline in global stocks during the current season, on the background of an already strong demand, ought to improve the current depressed price levels.

BULGARIA. A sluggish spirit of foreign trade prevailed during the first week of 2018. Regional competition has ruffled some feathers, but exports’ demand has been strong since the beginning of the marketing season, with the exception of a few quiet weeks, and even prices have added some premium. By the 7th of the month, the country exported 296,291 mt of corn via Varna sea port, which is by 95.3% higher on a year-to-year basis.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.09.2017 - 05.01.2018)

           units in MT

Beginning availability

580,000

Aggregate output

2,315,387

Imports

5,683

Domestic consumption

455,000

   food & industrial usage

170,000

   feed

285,000

Exports to the world

656,813

   to EU markets

   542,151

   to rest of the world

   114,662

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

At the same time, local demand has boosted volumes, if compared to those of last year. Starting 2017, the country left behind a local demand of 357,000 mt, while at the beginning of 2018, domestic consumption stood at 437,143 mt. A significant increase in the demand from the livestock sector and for industrial usage added to the rise.

Corn: could there be a significant price climb in 2018?

A moderately bullish market could seem out of sight right now, but with global production forecasted to be lower than global consumption during marketing season 2017-18, according to the latest USDA report on Grains: World Markets and Trade, could the recently added premiums to local prices become the so much desired harbinger for moderately bulls’ times? Last year, local market intermediaries faced tough regional competition, and as a result, carry-over came out quite high. Currently, the mounting competition within the Black sea basin keeps local price levels unnecessarily depressed, yet. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, current average purchasing prices (0.134 EUR/kg EXW) are by about 13 EUR/mt lower than what they used to be at that time last year. However, although the sound of bulls’ hooves is distant, the second part of the current marketing season could turn the wave in favor of local sellers!

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