Corn: Attuned to regional developments

December 15, 2017 at 10:27 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Regional developments have always influenced local market sentiments. Marketing year 2017-18 could be even a tougher one for exporters.

BULGARIA. The most recent estimates of harvested corn came to 2,311,817 mt, collected from 95.5% of 418,136 ha total available land, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Before the final estimates are released though, the market expects aggregate output to reach as far as 2.5 mmt – at least, that was the forecast before combines entered the fields this year. So far, average yield came to 5.8 mt/ha, which is by 10.1% higher than that of last year while harvested acreages during this season lag only by 1.1% on a yearly basis.

Corn: a sudden slump in trade activities

Although exports of corn skyrocketed in the beginning of the marketing season, and on a yearly basis, so far, these via sea routes lead those of last year by 95.3% (2017-18: 291,964 mt, according to local authorities), last year’s scenario of tough regional competition seems to be settling in. During the first week of December 2017, corn exports to EU members froze. Shipped volumes of the grain mainly go to EU markets such as Spain, France, Greece, etc., with smaller quantities reaching countries outside the Union. Whether reflective of regional developments or the prevailing current price levels, which are lower by about 14 EUR/mt on a yearly basis, local exporters might try to withhold the crop from the market.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.09.2017 - 08.12.2017)

          units in MT

Beginning availability

580,000

Aggregate output

2,311,817

Imports

323

Domestic consumption

355,000

   food & industrial usage

130,000

   feed

225,000

Exports to the world

570,821

   to EU markets

  461,864

   to rest of the world

   108,957

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

In the grasp of regional developments

According to a recent announcement by the Romanian Ministry of Agriculture, the country’s corn production has well reached 14.5 mmt, the result of a higher average yield of 5.8 mt/ha. The country is the second largest producer of corn in the Union, and the surplus output will send disquieting signals throughout local market channels. Although, corn production in Ukraine is forecasted to reached 25 mmt, down from 28 mmt of last year, according to the recent USDA report on Grains: Markets and Trade, Ukrainian corn has always been competitive within the Black sea region, swiftly entering the EU market. As a result of the aforementioned developments, local market players remain pessimistic of any increase in corn’s price.

Corn, Bulgaria

Crop

EUR/kg

Corn

0.135

EXW Bulgaria

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