Corn: Active trade supports prices

December 8, 2017 at 10:23 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. There is still time for the final results to be made public, but most recent estimates of output place it still lower than initially forecasted production figures. Prices stay firm, finding support in active trade.

BULGARIA. Before harvest 2017-18 began, market players expected aggregate output this year to reach between 2.5 to 2.6 mmt. The reasons for the expected higher output were favorable weather conditions since intermittent showers -- mainly throughout the North regions – kept moisture content in the soil at sufficient levels, till right before combines entered fields. However, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 30th of November 2017, estimates of harvested corn land came to 95.4% while collected quantities reached 2,311,465 mt. The production figure is already higher than last year’s total output – 2,226,094 mt. Anyhow, whether it will scratch the 2.5 mmt level is yet to be seen!

Corn: active trade support prices

Fearing an abundant production within the Black sea region, which could further push down prices and thus settle in for the longer-term - even slipping into 2018, many farmers started selling right in the midst of harvest. There were farmers within the Central North who sold at 0.123-0.125 EUR/kg EXW while combines were still in the fields. However, active domestic trade and strong foreign demand support local prices from falling. Current prices are not what they used to be a year earlier, reaching as high as 0.141-0.143 EUR/kg EXW, but at least the market has not experienced a nosedive, as some forecasted in the beginning of harvest. Local market sentiments project corn prices to hover around current levels – 0.135 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria in the short-term.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.09.2017 - 01.12.2017)

          units in MT

Beginning availability

580,000

Aggregate output

2,311,465

Imports

323

Domestic consumption

330,000

   food & industrial usage

120,000

   feed

210,000

Exports to the world

570,075

   to EU markets

  461,864

   to rest of the world

   108,211

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

According to local authorities, since the beginning of the current marketing season till the 3rd of December 2017, the country shipped abroad, via Varna sea port, 291,964 mt, which on a year-to-year basis stands by 95.3% higher. Whether the big exporters will try to withdraw from the market to influence prices in 2018 seem to be only a gossip right now!

Corn, Bulgaria

Crop

EUR/kg

Corn

0.135

EXW Bulgaria

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