Coffee: Consumption to reach new record in 2019/20
June 18, 2019 at 8:18 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Record consumption and revised figures
The USDA estimates that global production will decline by 3.1% to 10.148 million mt in 2019/20. This trend is mainly driven by the biennial cycle of production in Brazil since the Arabica trees will be entering an off-year. The ending stocks are expected to drop to 2.013 million mt in 2019/20 as consumption is expected to reach a record 10.075 million mt. In addition, the USDA has observed that exports in 2018/19 are higher than initially anticipated since Brazil shipped more coffee than expected, thereby prompting the government body to revise its export and ending stock figures for 2018/19. Exports have now been raised to 7.056 millionmt and the season’s ending stocks downwards to 2.178 million mt.
EU remains leading coffee consumer
Although the imports to the EU are set to decline by 1.1 % to 2.91 million mt in 2019/20, this nevertheless represents more than 40% of all global coffee bean imports. The main suppliers include Brazil with 29%, Vietnam with 25% and Honduras with 8% as well as Colombia with 6%. Contrary to this, consumption is expected to rise by 1.51% to 2.82 million mt, which will reduce ending stocks by 5.1% to 786,000 mt in 2019/20. The US will remain the second largest importer with exports expected to rise by 1.3% to 1,617 million mt. Ending stocks are also expected to rise by nearly 3% to 414,000 mt.
Lower output in Brazil and record in Vietnam
Due to the off-year in the biennial production cycle production is expected to drop by as much as 8.5% in Brazil. However, it should be noted that this figure still is considerably higher than the 3.054 million mt produced in 2017/18, which was the last off-year. Quality concerns are being voiced over the Arabica production as many trees were in different stages of maturity when the coffee cherries were harvested.
A record production of 1.83 million mt is expected in Vietnam. This is mainly driven by ideal weather and the decline in black pepper prices over the last three years, which means the fewer farmers decide to switch to pepper.
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World coffee production in 1,000 mt |
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|
Country |
2018/19 |
2019/20 |
Diff. |
|
Brazil |
3,888 |
3,558 |
-8.5% |
|
Vietnam |
1,824 |
1,830 |
+0.3% |
|
Colombia |
858 |
858 |
+/-0% |
|
Indonesia |
636 |
642 |
+0.9% |
|
Ethiopia |
435 |
441 |
1.4% |
|
Honduras |
420 |
390 |
-7.2% |
|
India |
310,2 |
329,1 |
+6.1% |
|
Mexico |
243 |
273 |
+12.3% |
|
Peru |
262,8 |
270 |
+2.7% |
|
Uganda |
288 |
255 |
-11.5% |
|
Guatemala |
216 |
216 |
+/-0% |
|
Nicaragua |
152,4 |
140,4 |
-7.9% |
|
China |
132 |
138 |
+4.5% |
|
Malaysia |
126 |
120 |
-4.8% |
|
Cote d’Ivoire |
102 |
108 |
+5.9% |
|
Costa Rica |
78 |
82,5 |
+5.8% |
|
Tanzania |
78 |
75 |
-3.9% |
|
Papua New Guinea |
52,5 |
54 |
+2,8% |
|
Thailand |
39 |
42 |
+7.7% |
|
El Salvador |
39 |
39 |
+/-0% |
|
Kenya |
45 |
39 |
-13.4% |
|
Venezuela |
35,1 |
36 |
+2.6% |
|
Laos |
27,6 |
28,5 |
+3.3% |
|
Philippines |
25,5 |
27 |
+5.9% |
|
Cameroon |
21 |
21 |
+/-0% |
|
Others |
135,9 |
135,3 |
-0.4% |
|
Total |
10,470 |
10,147,8 |
-3.1% |
|
FAS/USDA |
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