Bulgarian barley: current stocks quite high
May 23, 2017 at 6:20 AM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
Prices matter and regional trends have an effect on export mandates
Competition in the Black sea region has an effect on prices, which consequently influences sales. The majority of the crop was exported in the period between the beginning of the marketing season (starting in July) and the end of 2016. At that time, deals were closed at average purchasing prices of between 0.122 EUR/kg and 0.130 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria. Currently, supply and demand meet at about 0.136 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria.
Lack of exports and sluggish domestic trade will accumulate stocks
In recent months, exports have not been registered while the weak weekly trade on the local market will most probably accumulate higher than usual carry-over for the upcoming season. By the third week of May 2017, remaining stocks stood at 51,490 mt while at the start of the season, carry-over was 4,900 mt. And, the upcoming harvest will start in approximately а month.
The table below provides a view of barley harvest 2016-17, as well as, its domestic and foreign development trends.
Harvest 2016-17 (beginning of harvest till 19.05.2017) |
|
Carry over |
4,900mt |
Domestic output |
693,565mt |
Domestic consumption |
288,900mt |
Exports to the world |
373,796mt |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
How is barley consumption distributed on the local market?
Because of a lower export demand on a yearly basis, the majority of domestic consumption mainly has gone to feed use. By the 19th of May 2017, feed use represented 64.31% of domestic consumption. The second largest usage (23.57%) goes in the process of beer production.
Before the start of the upcoming harvest, remaining stocks will most probably go for internal consumption while average purchasing prices are expected to remain static.
Barley, Bulgaria |
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
feed barley |
0.136 |
CPT domestic port |