Barley: Snail-like motion on the export fronts
March 21, 2018 at 11:55 AM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. Because of the recent rains and melting of snow throughout the country, fields have abundant moisture reserves. The high levels of wetness prevent farmers from doing fieldwork against diseases and weeds, the latter of which find the conditions favorable to spread freely. Especially for barley, weather conditions seem to be quite harsh. Too much wetness and longer periods of low temperatures do not favor the grain, and as a consequence, some farmers expect their fields to get hit. Apparently, there will be fallen-through plots, but it is too early to make estimates and draw conclusions for upcoming output. Unfortunately, the weather will continue to be fickle, being more harsh than favorable to farmers.
Barley: the weather could surely influence future output
For the time being, farmers are prevented from entering fields to spray because of too much moisture, letting weeds flourish while crop diseases spread. Most probably, this agrometeorological predicament will spread till the end of the month when temperatures are forecasted to increase. However, depending on the fallen-through acreages and the replanting strategies of farmers, the upcoming aggregate output of barley could well take a hit. One thing is certain for the time being: the country expects a lower output because of lesser sowed acreages for harvest 2018-19, ceteris paribus. The final released data by the Ministry of Agriculture placed planted area at 109,800 ha, which is approximately 16.6% lower than what had been sowed for the previous season. However, fallen through acreages for harvest 2016-17, which produced an output of 697,787 mt, were minimal. For the upcoming season, things could be quite different!
|
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 - 16.03.2018) units in MT |
|
|
Beginning availability |
22,000 |
|
Aggregate output |
633,393 |
|
Imports |
5,314 |
|
Domestic consumption |
222,000 |
|
beer production |
55,500 |
|
feed |
166,500 |
|
Exports to the world |
301,157 |
|
to EU markets |
259,432 |
|
to rest of the world |
41,725 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
Slow motion on the export front
The majority of barley was bought out during the harvesting campaign by intermediary market players or directly from foreign buyers. Currently, substantial quantities of barley to get exported to the world are out of question. Because the country realized a lower output during harvest 2017-18, it is only natural, exports to result in lower figures. By the 16th of this month, total shipped volumes abroad reached 301,157 mt, which is by 19.43% lower on year-to-year basis.
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