Barley: To sell or not to sell
September 22, 2017 at 9:09 AM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. Harvest has long ended, and the final estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture placed aggregate output this year at 620,496 mt; last year’s national production reached 697,787 mt. The downgrade in collected quantities this season comes from the lower available land for harvest - by 19.5%. Output 2017-18 could have been even lower, had it not been for the higher average yield – 4.75 mt/ha or 7.5% higher on a yearly basis.
Barley: output characteristics too weak to influence regional forces
The lower output this year, on the background of a higher quality crop, fails to push prices higher. The substantial owners of barley land have already sold out the crop to intermediary market players, who seem in no hurry to unload the crop on the market.
Last year, barley’s prices experienced a firm upward increase two months after the end of harvest. Withholding the crop from the market, sellers expect to change the downward trend. So far in the season, they have not succeeded. Anyhow, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, on a year-to-year basis, EXW average purchasing prices this season are higher by about 4.0 EUR/kg when compared to those of last year.
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 - 15.09.2017) |
|
Carry over |
22,000 mt |
Domestic output |
619,812 mt |
Domestic consumption |
66,000 mt |
Exports to the world |
199,554 mt |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
Lack of export consistency
Exports of barley lack the vibrancy of wheat exports, for instance. Occasional exports for small quantities during the month are not encouraging, at all. On a year-to-year basis, only shipped volumes via sea routs – Varna sea port – lead by points: since the beginning of the marketing season till the end of last week, 86,684 mt of barley were exported, while during last year by that time, via the same marine route were shipped out only 6,053 mt. And this season, selling parties will be selling under the dark sky!
Barley, Bulgaria |
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
feed barley |
0.129 |
EXW Bulgaria |