Barley: To sell or not to sell

September 22, 2017 at 9:09 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Exports lack consistency on a weekly basis. Selling parties should prepare for a tough season.

BULGARIA. Harvest has long ended, and the final estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture placed aggregate output this year at 620,496 mt; last year’s national production reached 697,787 mt. The downgrade in collected quantities this season comes from the lower available land for harvest - by 19.5%. Output 2017-18 could have been even lower, had it not been for the higher average yield – 4.75 mt/ha or 7.5% higher on a yearly basis.

Barley: output characteristics too weak to influence regional forces

The lower output this year, on the background of a higher quality crop, fails to push prices higher. The substantial owners of barley land have already sold out the crop to intermediary market players, who seem in no hurry to unload the crop on the market.

Last year, barley’s prices experienced a firm upward increase two months after the end of harvest. Withholding the crop from the market, sellers expect to change the downward trend. So far in the season, they have not succeeded. Anyhow, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, on a year-to-year basis, EXW average purchasing prices this season are higher by about 4.0 EUR/kg when compared to those of last year.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 15.09.2017)

Carry over

22,000  mt

Domestic output

619,812 mt

Domestic consumption

66,000 mt

Exports to the world

199,554 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Lack of export consistency

Exports of barley lack the vibrancy of wheat exports, for instance. Occasional exports for small quantities during the month are not encouraging, at all. On a year-to-year basis, only shipped volumes via sea routs – Varna sea port – lead by points: since the beginning of the marketing season till the end of last week, 86,684 mt of barley were exported, while during last year by that time, via the same marine route were shipped out only 6,053 mt. And this season, selling parties will be selling under the dark sky!

Barley, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

feed barley

0.129

EXW Bulgaria

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