Barley: Regional market forces influence local market sentiments

January 26, 2018 at 3:13 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Shipments to non-EU markets lag behind substantially. Weather conditions alternate between low and quite high temperatures for the season.

BULGARIA. During the last several days, weather conditions have not been favorable for local farmers since temperatures reached as low as – 13 Celsius degrees in some regions while snow cover barely remained for longer than a day-two in some fields, while in others where it did, the snow layers were insignificant and covered scattered plots. Provided such weather conditions prevailed for few more weeks, crops’ damages were inevitable. However, till the end of the month, weather’s temperatures are forecasted to increase, reaching as high as 15 Celsius degrees in regions. Anyhow, neither rains nor snow are forecasted to fall within the next week.

Barley: regional rivalry influences local market sentiments

The majority of barley was briskly bought out in the few months after harvest. Intermediary market players started fulfilling their contracts, which pushed the export rate to skyrocketing levels. Afterwards, the export rate plummeted, since substantial quantities for shipment abroad are impossible to find on the market. Occasionally, a few metric tons cross the border, which seems to set the export market pulse for the future.

    Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 19.01.2018)

          units in MT

Beginning availability

22,000

Aggregate output

633,393

Imports

1,938

Domestic consumption

174,000

   beer production

43,500

   feed

130,500

Exports to the world

267,121

   to EU markets

239,332

   to rest of the world

    27,789

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

During last’s year marketing season, seller complained from tough regional competition, but this year, the rivalry within the Black sea basin does no lack in heat, at all. According to the most recent USDA report on World Agricultural Production, Russia’s barley output reached 20.20 mmt while that of Ukraine was estimated at 8.7 mmt. With such plentiful supplies within the region, benefiting from competitive prices, the aforementioned big exporters have already influenced local sellers’ potential to supply the grain to markets outside the EU. A case in point, by the 19th of January 2018, the country exported just 27,789 mt of barley to non-EU markets while a year earlier, shipped quantities reached 141,485 mt. It is too late for a drastic change to shift the trend in opposite direction.

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