Barley: Regional market forces influence local market sentiments
January 26, 2018 at 3:13 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. During the last several days, weather conditions have not been favorable for local farmers since temperatures reached as low as – 13 Celsius degrees in some regions while snow cover barely remained for longer than a day-two in some fields, while in others where it did, the snow layers were insignificant and covered scattered plots. Provided such weather conditions prevailed for few more weeks, crops’ damages were inevitable. However, till the end of the month, weather’s temperatures are forecasted to increase, reaching as high as 15 Celsius degrees in regions. Anyhow, neither rains nor snow are forecasted to fall within the next week.
Barley: regional rivalry influences local market sentiments
The majority of barley was briskly bought out in the few months after harvest. Intermediary market players started fulfilling their contracts, which pushed the export rate to skyrocketing levels. Afterwards, the export rate plummeted, since substantial quantities for shipment abroad are impossible to find on the market. Occasionally, a few metric tons cross the border, which seems to set the export market pulse for the future.
|
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 - 19.01.2018) units in MT |
|
|
Beginning availability |
22,000 |
|
Aggregate output |
633,393 |
|
Imports |
1,938 |
|
Domestic consumption |
174,000 |
|
beer production |
43,500 |
|
feed |
130,500 |
|
Exports to the world |
267,121 |
|
to EU markets |
239,332 |
|
to rest of the world |
27,789 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
During last’s year marketing season, seller complained from tough regional competition, but this year, the rivalry within the Black sea basin does no lack in heat, at all. According to the most recent USDA report on World Agricultural Production, Russia’s barley output reached 20.20 mmt while that of Ukraine was estimated at 8.7 mmt. With such plentiful supplies within the region, benefiting from competitive prices, the aforementioned big exporters have already influenced local sellers’ potential to supply the grain to markets outside the EU. A case in point, by the 19th of January 2018, the country exported just 27,789 mt of barley to non-EU markets while a year earlier, shipped quantities reached 141,485 mt. It is too late for a drastic change to shift the trend in opposite direction.
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