Barley: prices are as if destined to remain low

August 21, 2017 at 2:27 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Higher export activity does not necessarily mean success. In the end, it is the realized margin that matters.

Barley: lesson learned, although success is not guaranteed yet

SOFIA. Last year, exports hit a low (373,796 mt) in a row of three years. Regional competition was tough and instead of complying with international pressure later in the season, local intermediary market players sold the crop on the domestic market, realizing higher margins. The sluggish export activities at low prices from last year was the reason that pushed local farmers to refocus their cultivation strategies for harvest 2017-18.

However, the recent market pulse has been quite different from that of last season. Competitively priced exported volumes to EU member countries rose surprisingly fast so early during the current season. By the 11th of August 2017, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, shipments abroad accounted to 173,974 mt, as almost all was shipped to European markets. By the second week of the month, only via Varna seaport, 77,884 mt of barley were shipped to foreign destinations, which on a year-to-year basis is a rise of 1,230%.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 11.08.2017)

Carry over

22,000  mt

Domestic output

630,015 mt

Domestic consumption

36,000 mt

Exports to the world

173,974 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

The quick rise in the export turnover ratio to EU markets so early in the marketing season was due to executed contracts with foreign buyers, which were signed earlier in the year. However, there is no market indication that prices will move in the opposite direction and for the short-term projections are prices to remain subdued. Even if export activity is high, so long as margins are low because of competitive prices, market players are far away from reaping success! In the end, the local market could once again turn out be the better place to sell; even more so now, since barley is used as a substitute for feed wheat, which exports are already quickly increasing.

Barley, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

feed barley

0.130

EXW Bulgaria

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