Barley: higher than expected exports will quickly deplete stocks

August 14, 2017 at 2:03 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Exports are strikingly mounting on a yearly basis on the background of a lower aggregate output. Adverse weather conditions in some Western European countries speed-up shipments abroad.

Barley: will the lower aggregate output quench foreign demand?

SOFIA. By the end of the year, selling market players could well be caught unprepared to satisfy the growing foreign demand. So far in the marketing season, exports are higher than expected on a yearly basis. The reason is that during planting, farmers significantly reduced sowed acreages, by as much as 20%, because in the past usually the crop was priced lower than other locally grown crops and foreign demand last year was quite low. Yet, so far in the marketing season, exports have been strong, although prices are subdued; yet, still higher by a few euro on a yearly basis while remaining competitive in the Black sea basin.  In the short-term, prices are expected to remain flat to support the strong export activity.

A steep export activity supported by competitive prices

The adverse weather conditions, damaging the crop’s outputs in the countries of West Europe, are the reasons for the steep export activity so early in the season.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 04.08.2017)

Carry over

22,000  mt

Domestic output

630,015 mt

Domestic consumption

30,000 mt

Exports to the world

153,866 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, only via Varna seaport, close to 77,884 mt were shipped abroad from the start of the marketing season till the 6th of August. By that time last year, no foreign shipments were recorded. In total, by the end of the first week of the month, 153,866 mt were exported to foreign markets, as close to all went to EU member countries.

Barley, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

feed barley

0.131

EXW Bulgaria

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