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Barley: exports higher on a yearly basis

July 31, 2017 at 9:57 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Regional developments in the Black sea basin have always mattered, but this season, global trends seem to prevail over regional ones.

The USDA report on World Agricultural Production forecasted a drop in global output this season by 6.39%, reaching a figure of 138.53 mmt; with the EU members’ outputs contributing to the aggregate drop by a total of 1.5% - projected production of 59.10 mmt. Because of excessively dry weather conditions, the forecast might be further updated downward by a few mmt.

Barley: lower world output could actually drive local exports high

SOFIA. During last season, exports reached close to 373,800 mt – the lowest exports’ figure in a row of a few years. Carry-over of harvest 2016-17 stood at 22,000 mt. Adding to that lack of high prices, farmers decided to reduce planted acreages of the crop for the current season.

However, by the 23rd of July 2017, exports via Varna seaport reached 18,588 mt while at that time during the previous season, exports via the same sea route were not registered at all. Total exports by the end of week 29 reached 59,000 mt, all of which went to countries of the EU. On a yearly basis, exports are surprisingly on the rise. Domestic consumption stood at 18,000 mt.  

Regional developments

So far in the season, the majority of selling parties -- farmers and intermediaries -- have been reluctant to unload their stocks of barley on the market because market prices are low. Their main concern is regional market developments in the Black sea basin that exert downward pressure on local prices. A case in point, the EU increased the quotas for imports of Ukrainian barley, as indicated by a recent USDA report, from 250,000 mt to 575,000 mt. That will inevitably exert influence on local price. Yet, the forecasted output of the crop in Ukraine this year is set to be lower by 27.27%, reaching 7.2 mmt as indicated in a USDA report on World Agricultural Production. However, adverse weather conditions in other countries, negatively affecting national outputs, are seen as the major factor that will drive local exports this season.

Barley, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

feed barley

0.135

EXW Bulgaria

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