Barley: Demand shapes cultivation strategies
November 17, 2017 at 3:21 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. Final estimates, released by the Ministry of Agriculture, place aggregate output this season at 633,393 mt, which is by 9.23% lower than output realized during the previous harvesting campaign. According to local farmers, national production could have been even lower, but favorable weather conditions, which resulted in a higher yield, weighted in favor of the final result.
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 - 10.11.2017) units in MT |
|
Beginning availability |
22,000 |
Aggregate output |
633,393 |
Imports |
247 |
Domestic consumption |
114,000 |
beer production |
28,500 |
feed |
85,500 |
Exports to the world |
241,549 |
to EU markets |
224,332 |
to rest of the world |
17,217 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
Barley: entrenched in a shift of cultivation strategies
By now, it has become quite clear that cultivation of barley is losing ground to other grains such as rapeseed since the profit margin from the latter crop is higher; after all, the great majority of rapeseed is exported to EU markets. A case in point, according to local authorities, by the 9th of November 2017, estimates of sowed acreages of the grain reached 99,723 ha, which on a year-to-year basis is by 8.4% lower. Even though the percentage number will differ by the time final estimates are released, local farmers, disillusioned by the low prices of barley during harvest, send a crucial market signal that barley cultivation is currently undergoing a substantial strategic shift.
Shifts in cultivation strategy vs. foreign market positions
The market sentiment is that such an expected decrease in cultivation of barley, which will result in a subsequent drop in aggregate output, will not result in a loss of foreign market positions since the dynamics of the barley export market are in the grip of strong regional competition, which has not usually been in favor of local sellers. Tough regional competition and lack of consistent exports’ demand result in the accumulation of higher ending stocks. Customarily, barley is exported to EU markets such as Spain and Greece while to destinations outside the Union, the grain is shipped to Libya.