Barley: Take a deep breath - a sharp consecutive cut in planted acreages

April 4, 2018 at 10:51 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. This year’s reduction in planted acreages is not an isolated case: it has become an established trend by now. Weather conditions have favorably improved.

BULGARIA. The early forecast sets a much better general outlook for the weather conditions during the month of April. The temperatures will be somewhat higher for that time of the Spring while the expected sporadic showers in some regions will maintain the optimal level of moisture reserves in the soil; some farmers are quite apprehensive about further rains, though! Towards the end of the month, frosts are likely to fall.

Barley: a sharp cut it planted acreages

Although the weather outlook seems favorable for farmers throughout the country, the current outlook for the expected harvest of barley seems less so. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, current estimates of sowed land with barley stand at 113,665 ha, which on a year-to-year basis is by 12.6% lower than estimates at that time last year. Such a cut in planted acreages is not an isolated case, but instead, it has become a consistent trend. A case in point, last year’s planted acreages were reduced by 19.8% from those in 2016 while those of 2016 lagged behind by close to 8% from those planted in 2015.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 30.03.2018)

           units in MT

Beginning availability

22,000

Aggregate output

633,393

Imports

5,314

Domestic consumption

264,000

   beer production

58,500

   feed

175,500

   seeds

30,000

Exports to the world

301,602

   to EU markets

259,432

   to rest of the world

    42,170

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

At the beginning of harvest 2017-18, farmers within the Southeast region complained that buyers offered too low a price for their output to survive in the short-term. At that time, some farmers ominously promised to cut their future plots of barley and focus on more profitable ones instead such as rapeseed, for instance. And, cut they did! The Spring has not yet passed to evaluate what the season will have in store for farmers, but one thing is certain: expected output will be lower than the current one, ceteris paribus. Whether that will be reflected on higher prices remains to be seen since the local market does not exist in a vacuum, but instead is attuned to regional market forces.

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