Barley: In the dawn of harvest, forecasts are for a lower output

June 14, 2018 at 2:04 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
Fields are ready for harvest.
Fields are ready for harvest.
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SOFIA. In regions, farmers are already in fields, collecting the grain. However, the nationwide campaign of barley will be unfolding next week.

BULGARIA. In places where rains have recently been scarcer, harvest already began. Some such places happened to be fields within the Southeast, where farmers are currently collecting barley. In the following week, the whistle for the start of harvesting campaign 2018 in other places throughout the country will sound, and as a result, many more combines will leave their traces in cultivated with barley plots.

Barley: Where do we stand? What to expect?

Entering the dawn of harvest, farmers are standing in front of 115,649 ha of barley land. The current estimates for planted acreages are by close to 11% lower than those of last year. The cut in available for harvest acreages has not been an isolated case. No, just on the contrary, it has been deliberately planned. The prevalent agricultural strategy of local owners of barley plots in the past several years has been reduction of sowed land because of tough regional competition, depressed prices and weakening local demand throughout the years, according to farmers.

     Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 08.06.2018)

          units in MT

Beginning availability

22,000

Aggregate output

599,457

Imports

5,314

Domestic consumption

306,000

   beer production

70,500

   feed

205,500

   seeds

30,000

Exports to the world

311,828

   to EU markets

259,432

   to rest of the world

    52,396

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Output 2017-18 reached 599,457 mt because of auspicious weather, which increased yields. Because of reduction in planted acreages for the current harvest, the market already expects a lower national output. Yet, the worry is by how much lower and whether the lower forecasted supply will result in having inflationary expectations built-in on the demand side? Many farmers have forecasted lesser expected yields because of recently unfavourable meteorological conditions. As a result, the expected output could be pushed down even further.

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