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Barley: In the clutches of regional forces

December 14, 2017 at 2:37 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. The strong exports’ rate of a few months ago to EU markets has reached a plateau. Shipped volumes to countries outside the EU suffer considerably.

BULGARIA. At the beginning of harvest 2017-18, there were buyers’ offers reaching as low as 0.123 EUR/kg EXW farmers’ storage facilities. Swiftly executing the buying campaign, traders started fulfilling international contracts, pushing exports to EU markets to top levels. However, for the last several weeks, the export rate has been sluggish while domestic demand goes by a few metric tons on a weekly basis.

Barley: expectations have come to fruition

Persistent trends do not die of old age, instead they become firmly ingrained. During the current marketing season, the country realized 633,393 mt of barley, which is lower by 9.23% from the aggregate output of last year. Discouraged by prevailing market prices and driven by profit incentives, in recent years, farmers started cutting back on cultivated acreages of barley so that they could allocate more land to other more profitable crops. And their strategies seem to have turned out to be well-chosen ones since by the 8th of December 2017, the country exported to markets outside the Union only 27,687 mt while by the 9th of December 2016, shipped quantities to such destinations accounted to 141,485 mt – the difference of 80.43% is in favor of last year! The reason: regional market forces.

     Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 08.12.2017)

         units in MT

Beginning availability

22,000

Aggregate output

633,393

Imports

247

Domestic consumption

138,000

   beer production

34,500

   feed

103,500

Exports to the world

252,019

   to EU markets

224,332

   to rest of the world

    27,687

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Although local barley finds its place in countries of the European Union such as Greece and Spain, its competitiveness on a broader market arena outside the EU market has suffered considerably. According to the recent USDA report on Grains: Markets and Trade, Russia has realized 20.5 mmt of barley (2016-17: 17.5 mmt) while its exports during the current marketing season are forecasted to reach 4.8 mmt (2016-17: 2.9 mmt). Moreover, Ukrainian barley’s exports have always held significant positions on the international markets. Both regional behemoths set the pulse on the market within the region and even beyond, gaining significant strongholds on the international arena.

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