Barley: Not a one-way bet

April 26, 2018 at 3:17 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Farmers’ decisions to plant more or less of the grain for the upcoming harvest will sway into the final output. Yet, the weather could weigh-in heavily, as well.

BULGARIA. The campaign of Spring barley’s sowing has been recently unfolding at a quicker pace, although being belated earlier because of unfavorable weather conditions. According to local authorities, by the 19th of April 2018, farmers managed to plant 1,639 ha while a year earlier, planted acreages amounted to 2,846 ha. The difference of 42.4% is in favor of sowed land during last year, yet.

Barley: Honing the art of the deal?

Clearly, local farmers, unwillingly cornered by tough regional competition in recent years, have decided to lower their land exposition to barley. As a result, they cut acreages, influencing the supply side of the local market while hoping to spur the price on the demand side. However, such a deal, as straightforward as it might seem, misses the signature of the opposite party – the buyers, yet. The local market does not exist in a vacuum while international buyers have options within the region.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 20.04.2018)

          units in MT

Beginning availability

22,000

Aggregate output

633,393

Imports

5,314

Domestic consumption

282,000

   beer production

63,000

   feed

189,000

   seeds

30,000

Exports to the world

311,828

   to EU markets

259,432

   to rest of the world

    52,396

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

In addition, the weather factor has to be accounted for. Even though data on fallen-through acreages from meteorological forces will become available later in May, some farmers already complained of having recorded losses from overflooded fields; others estimate the overall conditions of their fields as satisfactory. The market expects the upcoming output to be lower because of the cut in acreages, ceteris paribus, but the weather could lower it further. In the end, some farmers could very well fall through their strategic plans of mastering the art of the deal of lower supply-higher prices and experience the pains from laboring the art of survival.

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