Barley: Will lower availability actually influence prices?

December 8, 2017 at 3:19 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. And this year, farmers allocated less land for barley. Low prices and regional competition influence cultivation decisions.

BULGARIA. Even though for this marketing season, farmers combined fewer acreages – available cultivated land was by 19.5% less than that for season 2015-16, hoping to influence prices of barley by directly impacting aggregate output, trade activities have recently been sluggish, at best. No market signals indicate changes in local sentiment in the short-term.

Barley: the response to subdued prices and tough regional competition is …

Accepting lower prices for barley at the start of the harvesting season this year, farmers were quite determined to adequately respond to the prevailing market trend back then – suppressed prices. Tough regional competition also adds to the built-up pressure, resulting in tiresome market sentiments. Skyrocketing at the beginning of the marketing season, exports have slowed down recently, lagging behind by 35.20% from shipped quantities to the world during last year, according to local authorities. As a result, the so much planned response to external market pressure has echoed through sowed acreages of barley for next year.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 01.12.2017)

          units in MT

Beginning availability

22,000

Aggregate output

633,393

Imports

247

Domestic consumption

132,000

   beer production

33,000

   feed

99,000

Exports to the world

241,549

   to EU markets

224,332

   to rest of the world

    17,217

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

According to local authorities, by the 30th of November 2017, estimates of planted land reached 107,264 ha, which on a year-to-year basis stand by 15.4% lower. Even though the reduction in planted acreages of barley will substantially affect aggregate output for next year, ceteris paribus, the realized slower export rate in recent years and the higher carry-over are indicative that the country could fulfill its foreign market contracts with less. After all, among other factors, availability of quantities influences price levels!

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